000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Dec 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N76.5W to 09N83W to 06.5N97W. 
The ITCZ continues from 06.5N97W to 09N126W to beyond 08.5N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N
to 07.5N between 79W and 83.5W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge of high pressure extends southeastward across the waters
west of Baja California to near 18N111W. Fresh W to SW winds 
prevail over the northern Gulf of California, with moderate to 
fresh winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to 
gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range 
west of the Baja California peninsula and 3-5 ft elsewhere over 
the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3-5 ft are seen over the 
north and central portions of the Gulf of California with 2-3 ft
seas elsewhere over the Gulf waters. 

The high pressure ridge extending SE across the offshore waters 
of Baja California will give way to a cold front today, 
supporting fresh W to NW winds over the Baja Norte offshore 
waters today and strong SW to W winds across the northern Gulf 
of California into Wed. NW swell will continue to impact the 
offshore waters off Baja California Norte today before subsiding.
Another cold front and associated low pressure will move into 
the waters offshore of Baja Norte early Thu and move across the 
Baja Peninsula Thu night through Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region with 
light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to 
moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 range across the forecast 
waters.

Fresh gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo region throughout
the week. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of 
the monsoon trough. Moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of 
Panama through Thu, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south
of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A deep layered 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 21.5N143W. 
Weak troughing extends eastward from the low along about 21N and 
across the western portion of the discussion area. The pressure 
gradient between a high pressure ridge to the N and this area of
low pressure continues to produce fresh to strong NE to E winds 
over the discussion waters from 22N to 27N and W of 124W, with 
seas 9 to 13 ft in N swell. This area of strong easterly winds 
will diminish in areal coverage today as the pressure gradient 
weakens. 

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted from 10N to 20N and
west of 124W. Gentle to moderate winds the remainder of the 
discussion waters. An inverted surface trough extends from
22N122W to 15N126W. Associated moisture convergence surrounding
this trough is triggering scattered moderate isolated strong
convection within an area from 11.5N121W TO 19N121W TO 14N128W 
TO 11.5N121W. NW swell continues to dominate seas across the 
region N of 15N and W of 120W with seas in the 7-11 ft range. 
Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. The NW swell will slowly 
subside by midweek. 

A cold front will sink southward across the northern waters Wed 
afternoon through Fri before becoming stationary along about 18N.
Moderate NW to N swell will accompany the front into the region.

$$
Stripling