000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280808
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Dec 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N93W to 07N98W. The 
ITCZ continues from 07N98W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 78W and 82W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters west of Baja
California. Fresh winds prevail over the northern Gulf of 
California, with moderate to fresh winds west of the Baja 
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. 
Seas are in the 6-9 ft range west of the Baja California 
peninsula and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. 
Seas of 3-5 ft are seen over the northern Gulf of California 
with 2-3 ft seas elsewhere over the Gulf waters. 

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge extending SE across the 
offshore waters of Baja California will give way to a cold front 
today, supporting fresh northerly winds over the Baja offshore 
waters today and strong SW to W winds to the northern Gulf of 
California into Wed. NW swell will continue to impact the 
offshore waters off Baja California Norte today before subsiding.
Another cold front and associated low pressure will move into 
the waters offshore of Baja Norte early Thu and move across the 
Baja Peninsula Thu night through Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong gap winds prevail over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, 
with gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 range across the
forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo
region throughout the week. Light to gentle winds will occur
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Thu, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A deep layered 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 22N142W. 
Weak troughing extends eastward from the low along about 21N and 
across the western portion of the discussion area. The pressure 
gradient between a high pressure ridge to the NE and this area of
low pressure continues to produce fresh to strong NE to E winds 
over the discussion waters from 22N to 27N and W of 130W, with 
seas near 13 ft. This area of strong easterly winds will 
diminish in areal coverage today as the pressure gradient 
weakens. 

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted from 10N to 20N and
west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds the remainder of the 
discussion waters. Fresh NW swell continues across the region N 
of 15N and W of 120W with seas in the 7-11 ft range. Seas of 4-7 
ft prevail elsewhere.

The NW swell will slowly subside by midweek. A cold front will 
sink southward across the northern waters Wed afternoon through 
Fri before becoming stationary along about 18N. Moderate NW to N 
swell will accompany the front into the region.

$$
AL