000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280049
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Dec 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N93W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N93W to 08N108W to 08N120W to 09N130W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N east of
82W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters west of Baja
California. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the northern Gulf
of California, with moderate to fresh winds west of the Baja
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere.
Seas are in the 6-9 ft range west of the Baja California
peninsula and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.
Seas of 3-4 ft are seen over the northern Gulf of California with
2-3 ft seas elsewhere over the Gulf waters. 

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge extending SE across the 
offshore waters of Baja California will give way to a cold front 
on Tue, bringing fresh northerly winds to the Baja offshore 
waters tonight and strong SW to W winds to the northern Gulf of 
California tonight into Wed. NW swell will continue to impact the
offshore waters off Baja California Norte through Tue before 
subsiding. Another cold front and associated low pressure will 
move into the waters offshore of Baja Norte early Thu and move 
across the Baja Peninsula Thu night through Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with 
gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 range across the
forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo
region throughout the week. Light to gentle winds will occur
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Thu, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A deep layered 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 21.5N141.5W
and moving NW around 8 kt. Weak troughing extends eastward along
about 21N and across western portions of the discussion area to 
130W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
occurring east of the low from 16N to 25N between 120W and 130W.
The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge to the NE 
and this area of low pressure continues to produce fresh to 
strong NE to E winds over the discussion waters from 22N to 28N 
and W of 130W, with seas near 15 ft. This area of strong 
easterly winds will shift slowly northward and diminish in areal 
coverage over the next 24 hours as the pressure gradient 
weakens. 

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted from 10N to 20N and
west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of 
the remainder of the discussion waters. Fresh NW swell continues 
across the region N of 15N and W of 120W with seas in the 7-11 ft
range. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

The NW swell will slowly subside by midweek. A cold front will 
sink southward across the northern waters Wed afternoon through 
Fri before becoming stationary along about 18N. Moderate NW to N 
swell will accompany the front into the region.

$$
AL