000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272109 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Dec 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A deep layered 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 21.5N141.5W and moving NW around 8 kt. Weak troughing extends eastward along about 21N and across western portions of the discussion area to 130W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring east of the low from 17N to 23.5N between 124W and 130W. The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge to the NW and this area of low pressure continues to produce strong to just below gale-force NE to E winds over the discussion waters from 22N to 28N and W of 128W. Winds have diminished below gale force in the past few hours, and the associated Gale Warning has been discontinued. Recent satellite altimeter data measured seas over this area to 15 ft along 138W, and likely 16-17 ft farther W along 140W. This area of strong easterly winds will shift slowly northward and diminish in areal coverage over the next 24-36 hours as the pressure gradient weakens. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 09.5N85W to 06N94W. The ITCZ continues from 06N94W to 09.5N119W to 10.5N134W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 78.5W and 81W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A narrow high pressure ridge extends SE into the offshore waters to near 22N112W this afternoon and is promoting moderate northerly west of the Baja California peninsula, becoming gentle offshore of Baja Sur. Gentle northerly winds are over most of the Gulf of California, except for moderate southerly winds north portions. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere between Las Tres Marias and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. NW swell is producing seas in the 6-9 ft range west of Baja California Norte and seas of 5-7 ft west of Baja California Sur. Seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Across the Gulf of California, seas of 2-3 ft prevail. A cold front across southern California this afternoon will sink southward and approach Baja California Norte on Tue, bringing fresh northerly winds to the Baja offshore waters tonight and strong SW to W winds to the northern Gulf of California tonight into Wed. NW swell will continue to impact the offshore waters off Baja California Norte through late Tue before subsiding. Looking ahead, another cold front and associated low pressure will move into the waters offshore of Baja Norte early Thu and induce moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds across most of the offshore waters ahead of the front. The front is expected to move across the Baja Peninsula Thu night through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend downwind to near 10N89W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range offshore of the Papagayo region and 3-4 ft elsewhere. Fresh gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo region throughout the remainder of the week. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Thu, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Please see above for more on the expired gale warning over the western waters. Outside of the conditions associated with the low pressure system described in the special features section, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the region between 115W and 130W. Fresh NW swell continues across the region N of 15N and W of 120W with seas in the 7-11 ft range. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. The NW swell will continue to prevail across the waters north of 15N and west of 120W and subside by midweek. A cold front will sink southward across the northern waters Wed afternoon through Fri before becoming stationary along about 18N. Moderate NW to N swell will accompany the front into the region. $$ Stripling