000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261559
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Dec 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 mb low pressure is located near 17N136W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is east of the low from 10N to 23N
between 126W to 137W. Gale- force winds are ongoing NW of the 
low, from 20N- 22N and W of 138W. Seas are likely reaching 13 ft.
Gale- force winds will continue through late tonight with seas 
peaking near 16 ft near the highest winds. Additionally, the 
pressure gradient between the low and the high pressure north of 
the area is supporting strong to near gale force winds in the 
northern semicircle of the low with seas 8 to 12 ft. The strong 
to near gale- force winds will prevail through late Mon night, 
mainly north of 20N and west of 130W. Please see the High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N81W 
to 07N100W. The ITCZ continues from 07N100W to 08N113W to 
11N125W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of the 
monsoon trough from 03N to 07N between 77W and 81W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the northern Gulf of 
California. Fresh to locally strong winds winds prevail west of 
the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle are noted winds
elsewhere. Showers are moving across the northern Gulf of 
California. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring south of 
Guerrero. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range west of Baja California
and in the 3-5 ft range elsewhere across the open waters off 
Mexico. Seas of 3-5 ft are also noted over the northern Gulf of 
California with 1-3 f across the rest of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will reach Baja California 
Norte early today before dissipating by Mon. In advance of this 
front, strong SW gap winds will continue in the northern Gulf of
California through this morning. Another cold front will 
approach Baja California Norte on Mon, bringing strong SW winds 
to the northern Gulf of California once again Mon night into Tue.
Swell reaching 8-9 ft from these two fronts will linger west of 
Baja California Norte from Sun through Mon night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong gap winds continues over the Gulf of Papagayo. 
Moderate to locally fresh N winds are pulsing over the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Scattered 
moderate convection is west of Colombia from 03N to 07N between 
78W to 80W. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range offshore the Gulf of 
Papagayo and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse over the
Papagayo region through Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh N 
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Mon. 
Gentle to locally moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for more on a gale warning over the western 
waters.

Outside of the low pressure system described in the special
features section, a cold front stretches across the northern 
portion of the forecast waters from 30N118W to 26N140W. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds are noted behind the front. Gentle to 
moderate winds are noted across the region. A set of NW swell 
continues across the region N of 15N and W of 120W with seas in 
the 7-10 ft range. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, aside from the gale conditions expected today,  
the NW swell will continue to prevail across the waters north of 
15N and west of 120W and subside by Tue.

$$
AReinhart