000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251556
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Dec 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 mb low pressure is located near 14N136W with a trough
extending along the low from 15N133W to 11N138W. Fresh to strong
winds are noted in the northern semicircle of the low with seas 8
to 10 ft. The pressure gradient between this low pressure area 
and high pressure north of the area will support a large area of 
strong to near gale force winds tonight through Mon, mainly north
of 20N and west of 130W. Gale- force winds are forecast to 
develop Sun into Mon west of 139W beginning around 18Z Sunday, in
the vicinity of 22N- 25N. Seas will build to near 16 ft during 
the period of gale- force winds. Please see the High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N83W to 07N96W. The ITCZ continues from 07N96W to 07N111W to
11N128W. A trough extends north of the ITCZ from 15N104W to
10N115W with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
along it from 09N to 15N between 103W to 116W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 120W to 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California 
peninsula as well as the northern Gulf of California. Light to 
gentle are noted winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft west of 
Baja California Norte. Seas in the 4-5 ft range prevail elsewhere
across the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3-4 ft are noted in 
the northern Gulf of California, with 1-3 ft seas over the 
remainder of the Gulf. 

A weak cold front will reach Baja California Norte early Sun 
before dissipating by late Sun into early Mon. In advance of 
this front, strong SW gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf
of California late tonight. A third cold front will approach 
Baja California Norte early next week, bringing strong SW winds 
to the northern Gulf of California Mon night to Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are pulsing over the
Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas 
are in the 5-6 ft range offshore the Gulf of Papagayo and 3-4 ft 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse over the 
Papagayo region through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh N 
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Mon. 
Gentle to locally moderate breezes will persist elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for an upcoming gale warning over the western
waters later this weekend. 

Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the region outside of
the low pressure system described above. The dying cold front 
has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas in the 8-10 ft range 
north of the front. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere. 

Aside from the gale conditions expected this weekend, reinforcing
swell will move south of 30N tonight and propagate across the 
waters north of 15N and west of 120W through Mon before beginning
to subside.

$$
AReinhart