000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Dec 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A low pressure system is forecast to develop late Sat night or early Sun morning near 20N140W. The pressure gradient between this low pressure area and high pressure north of the area will support a large area of strong to near gale force winds Sat night through Mon, mainly north of 20N and west of 130W. Gale- force winds are forecast to develop Sun into Mon west of 139W beginning around 18Z Sunday, in the vicinity of 22N- 25N. Seas will build to near 15 ft during the period of gale- force winds. Please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N94W. The ITCZ continues from 07N94W to 06N113W to 10N130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 103W and 111W, from 07N to 20N between 121W and 130W, and from 13N to 20N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A cold front extends across the northern Gulf of California. Scattered showers are noted over the Gulf within 60 nm south of the front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft west of Baja California Norte in NW swell that has propagated into the area. Seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted in the northern Gulf of California, with 1-3 ft seas over the remainder of the Gulf. The cold front over the northern Gulf of California will stall late tonight and dissipate Sat morning over the central Gulf of California. Fresh winds and moderate NW swell will follow the front off Baja California into Sat. A second weak cold front will reach Baja California Norte early Sun before dissipating by late Sun. In advance of this front, strong SW gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California Sat night. A third cold front will approach Baja California Norte early next week, bringing strong SW winds to the northern Gulf of California Mon night to Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are pulsing over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range offshore the Gulf of Papagayo and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo region through Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Sat night. Gentle to locally moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for an upcoming gale warning over the western waters later this weekend. A cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California across the Baja California peninsula to near 22N123W where it becomes stationary to near 17N140W. A weak low of 1011 mb is centered near 12N125W. Fresh to locally strong winds are within 120 nm NE semicircle of the low. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the vicinity of the strong winds around the low. The cold front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas in the 8-11 ft range north of the front. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere. Aside from the gale conditions expected this weekend, fresh winds will continue north 28N west of Baja California Norte through tonight with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Looking ahead, additional reinforcing swell will move south of 30N Sat night and propagate across the waters north of 15N and west of 120W through early Mon. $$ AL