000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242201
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Dec 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning near 140W: A low pressure system is forecast to
develop late Sat night or early Sun morning near 20N140W. The 
pressure gradient between this low pressure area and high 
pressure north of the area will support a large area of strong to
near gale force winds Sat night through Mon, mainly north of 20N
and west of 130W. This deepening low pressure is forecast to 
develop gale force winds Sun into Mon. Gale force winds are
forecast to occur west of 139W beginning around 18Z Sunday, in
the vicinity of 22N-25N. Seas will build to 12 to 14 ft in the
area by Sun afternoon. Please see the High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N94W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N94W to 06N104W to 08N117W to 09N127W to
11N130W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 07N to 15N between 122W and 131W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 122W and 125W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A cold front extends from 32N115W to 29N116W to 25N120W to
22N124W. Scattered showers are noted north of 26N and east of 
120W, and from 12N-20N between 115W-117W. A surface trough 
extends from 16N99W to 12N107W. Isolated moderate convection is 
near the trough axis. The latest ASCAT satellite wind data shows
fresh to locally strong W to NW winds offshore Baja California 
Norte, where seas are likely 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds
are likely occurring in the northern Gulf of California, with 
seas of 4 to 6 ft. The Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is
ending now, with moderate winds prevailing, and seas 4-6 ft.
Elsewhere, gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail, except for 1-3 
ft over the southern Gulf of California.

The cold front extending from 32N115W to 25N120W will stall late
tonight and dissipate Sat morning over the central Gulf of
California. Fresh to strong SW gap winds will continue in the
northern Gulf of California through this evening. Fresh winds 
and moderate NW swell will follow the front off Baja California 
into Sat. A second weak cold front will reach Baja California 
Norte early Sun before dissipating by late Sun. In advance of
this front, strong SW gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf
of California Sat night. A third cold front will approach Baja 
California Norte early next week, bringing strong SW winds to the
northern Gulf of California Mon night and Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of 
Papagayo, with a recent ASCAT pass showing winds of 25 kt. 
Moderate to locally fresh N winds are pulsing over the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 
6-8 ft range offshore the Gulf of Papagayo and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail over 
the Papagayo region through Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh
N winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Sat 
night. Gentle to locally moderate breezes will persist elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 32N115W to 29N116W to 25N120W to
22N124W to 20N129W. Fresh NW winds are noted north of 28N behind
the front to 125W. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell,
which has peaked near 11 ft. A surface trough extends from 
16N132W to 09N137W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near 
the northern end of the trough from 14N to 17N between 132W and 
136W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong NE to E winds northwest
of the trough, from 15N-17N between 135W-136W. Seas are in the 
8-11 ft range north of 25N and 4-8 ft elsewhere.

Fresh winds will continue north 28N west of Baja California Norte
through today with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Looking ahead, additional
reinforcing swell will move south of 30N Sat night and propagate
across the waters north of 15N and west of 120W through early 
Mon.

$$
Hagen