000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241546
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Dec 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N94W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N94W to 09N119W to 11N131W. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 
126W and 132W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to
10N between 122W and 125W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A cold front extends from 32N119W to 29N122W to 24N130W.
Scattered showers are noted north of 27N and east of 120W. A
surface trough extends from 15.5N99W to 10.5N106W. Isolated
moderate convection is near the trough axis. Fresh to locally 
strong W winds are likely currently occurring offshore Baja 
California Norte with the cold front with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 
Fresh to strong SW winds are likely occurring in the northern 
Gulf of California, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong N 
winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 5 to 7 
ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail, except for 
1-3 ft over the southern and central Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will diminish today. The cold front extending from
32N119W to 24N130W will reach northern Baja California today, 
bringing fresh to strong SW gap winds in the northern Gulf of 
California. Fresh winds and moderate NW swell will follow the 
front off Baja California into Sat. The front will stall late 
tonight and dissipate Sat morning over the north-central Gulf of
California. A weak cold front will reach Baja California Norte 
early Sun before dissipating by late Sun. A third cold front will
approach Baja California Norte early next week, bringing strong 
SW winds to the northern Gulf of California Mon night and Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo.
Moderate to locally fresh N winds are pulsing over the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the
6-7 ft range offshore the Gulf of Papagayo and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail over 
the Papagayo region through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh N 
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Sat 
night. Gentle to locally moderate breezes will persist 
elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 32N119W to 29N122W to 24N130W,
dissipating to 21N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of
28N within 150 nm of the front. The front has ushered in a set 
of NW swell, currently peaking near 11 ft. A surface trough 
extends from 16N134W to 08N136W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen near the northern end of the trough from 15N to 23N between 
130W and 137W. A 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 23N123W. 
Aside from conditions associated with the cold front and trough,
a weak pressure pattern prevails over the region, with gentle to
moderate winds prevailing. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range north 
of 26N and 5-8 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the cold front will continue east and reach 
Baja California Norte today. Fresh to locally strong winds are 
expected north of 28N with this front through today with seas 
of 8 to 11 ft. Looking ahead, additional reinforcing swell will 
move south of 30N Sat night and propagate across the waters north
of 15N and west of 120W through early Mon.

A low pressure system is forecast to develop this weekend near 
20N140W. The pressure gradient between this low pressure area 
and high pressure north of the area will support a large area of
strong to near gale force winds Sat night through Mon, mainly 
north of 20N and west of 130W. It is possible that this low 
could develop gale force winds Sun into Mon near 140W, in the 
vicinity of 20N to 25N.

$$
Hagen