000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240841
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N94W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N94W to 06N114W to 09N132W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 21N between 126W
and 138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 24N120W. Fresh to 
strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well as the
northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California, and 4-5 ft 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will diminish today. A cold front will reach northern
Baja California today, bringing fresh to strong SW gap winds in 
the northern Gulf of California. Fresh winds and moderate NW 
swell will follow the front off Baja California into Sat. The 
front will stall late tonight and dissipate Sat over the north- 
central Gulf of California. A weak cold front will reach Baja 
California Norte early Sun before dissipating by late Sun. A 
third cold front will approach Baja California Norte early next 
week, bringing strong SW winds to the northern Gulf of California
Mon night and Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with
moderate to locally fresh winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range 
over the Gulf of Papagayo and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail over 
the Papagayo region through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh N 
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Sat 
night. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N126W to 28N140W. Fresh to strong 
winds are noted north of 29N within 90 nm of the front. The 
front has ushered in a set of NW swell, currently peaking near 
11 ft. A surface trough extends from 16N135W to 08N137W. Moderate
to locally fresh winds prevail west of the trough. High pressure
of 1018 mb is centered near 24N120W. Aside from conditions 
associated to the cold front and trough, a weak pressure pattern
prevails over the region, with gentle to moderate winds 
prevailing. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range north of the cold front
and 5-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the cold front will continue east and reach 
Baja California Norte today. Fresh to locally strong winds are 
expected north of 28N with this front through today with seas 
of 8 to 11 ft. Looking ahead, additional reinforcing swell will 
move south of 30N Sat night and propagate across the waters north
of 15N and west of 120W through early Mon.

A low pressure system is forecast to develop this weekend near 
20N140W. The pressure gradient between this low pressure area 
and high pressure north of the area will support a large area of
strong to near gale force winds Sat night through Mon, mainly 
north of 20N and west of 130W. It is possible that this low 
could develop gale force winds Sun into Mon near 140W, in the 
vicinity of 20N to 25N.

$$
AL