000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240243 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Dec 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N87W to 06N96W. The ITCZ continues from 06N96W to 06N114W to 10N133W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 20N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 23N123W. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong N winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning before diminishing during the day Fri. High pressure west of Baja California will dissipate tonight with the approach of a cold front that will reach northern Baja California around midday Fri. Fresh to strong southwesterly gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California late tonight through Fri night, ahead of and with the front. Fresh winds and moderate NW swell will follow the front off Baja California Fri into Sat. The front will stall late Fri night and dissipate Sat over the north-central Gulf of California. Another weak cold front approaching from the north will reach Baja California Norte early Sun before dissipate by late Sun. In the wake of this second front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate swell will prevail west of Baja California Sun into Mon. A third cold front could approach Baja California Norte Mon night, bringing strong SW winds to the northern Gulf of California Mon night and Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with moderate to locally fresh winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the Gulf of Papagayo and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo region through Sat. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Sat night. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N131W to 29N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 29N east of the front with moderate to fresh winds north of the front. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell, currently peaking near 11 ft. A surface trough extends from 16N135W to 08N137W. High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 23N123W. Aside from conditions associated to the cold front, a weak pressure pattern prevails over the region, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over a small area roughly from 10N to 15N and west of 137W. Elsewhere seas are in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast, the cold front will continue east and reach Baja California Norte midday Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected north of 28N with this front through Fri with seas building to between 8 to 11 ft. Looking ahead, additional reinforcing swell will move south of 30N Sat night and continue progressing S across the area through early Mon. A low pressure system may develop Sat night or Sun near 20N140W. The gradient between this deepening low pressure and strong high pressure north of the area will act to produce a large area of strong to near gale force winds Sat night through Mon, mainly north of 18N and west of 130W. It is possible that this low could develop gale force winds Sun into Mon near 140W, in the vicinity of 20N to 25N. $$ AL