000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Dec 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N96W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 08N114W to 09N126W, then continues W of a surface trough from 09N131W to 10N137W. A surface trough is from 12N127W to 07N130W, and another surface trough stretches from 13N137W to 07N139W. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 133W and 137.5W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 20N between 131W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 24N122W, leading to a gentle breeze west of Baja California. Gentle or lighter winds currently prevail offshore all of Mexico, except for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, where a recent partial ASCAT satellite pass showed strong N winds. Strong to near gale force winds are likely occurring. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the Tehuantepec region, 4 to 5 ft west of Baja California, 1 to 2 ft in the Gulf of California and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong N winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning before diminishing during the day Fri. The high pressure west of Baja California will dissipate tonight with the approach of a cold front that will reach northern Baja California around midday Fri. Fresh to strong southwesterly gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California late tonight through Fri night, ahead of and with the front. Fresh winds and moderate NW swell will follow the front off Baja California Fri into Sat. The front will stall late Fri night and dissipate Sat over the north-central Gulf of California. Another weak cold front approaching from the north will reach Baja California Norte early Sun before dissipate by late Sun. In the wake of this second front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate swell will prevail west of Baja California Sun into Mon. A third cold front could approach Baja California Norte Mon night, bringing strong SW winds to the northern Gulf of California Mon night and Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Strong gap winds are currently occurring in the Papagayo region. Gentle winds are occurring north of the monsoon trough. Gentle S to SW winds are observed south of the monsoon trough, except in the Gulf of Panama, where moderate N winds are likely occurring. Seas are generally 3 to 4 ft offshore South America and Panama and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except for 5 to 7 ft in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, strong gap winds over the Papagayo region will persist through Fri, but fresh to locally strong winds will continue thereafter through early Sun. Moderate to fresh N winds will occur in the Gulf of Panama at night, tonight through Sat night. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N136W to 29N140W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong N winds north of the front. Moderate trades prevail north of the ITCZ to near 17N, with mainly gentle winds from 17N-25N, east of 130W. Fresh NE winds are present north of the ITCZ to 15N, between 137W and 140W, west of a surface trough that stretches from 13N137W to 07N139W. North of the ITCZ and west of 127W, seas are generally 7 to 9 ft. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front extending from 30N136W to 29N140W will reach from 30N130W to 27N140W this evening, 30N121W to 25N129W Fri morning, then continue east and reach Baja California Norte midday Fri. Moderate reinforcing swell will follow the cold front Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected north of 28N with this front now through Fri with seas building to between 8 to 11 ft. Looking ahead, additional reinforcing swell will move south of 30N Sat night and continue progressing S across the area through early Mon. A low pressure system is expected to form Sat night or Sun in the vicinity of 20N140W. The gradient between this deepening low pressure and strong high pressure north of the area will act to produce a large area of strong to near gale force winds Sat night through Mon, mainly north of 18N and west of 130W. It is possible that this low could develop gale force winds Sun into Mon near 140W, in the vicinity of 20N to 25N. $$ Hagen