843 AXPZ20 KNHC 231559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Dec 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 06N97W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 10N113W to 08N129W to 09N140W. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 135W and 140W. Isolated moderate convection is present from 09N to 11N between 109W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1020 mb high is centered near 26N120W, leading to a gentle breeze west of Baja California. Gentle or lighter winds currently prevail offshore all of Mexico, except for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, where strong to near gale force N to NE winds persist. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the Tehuantepec region, 4 to 5 ft west of Baja California, 1 to 2 ft in the Gulf of California and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong N winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning before diminishing during the day Fri. The high pressure west of Baja California will dissipate tonight with the approach of the next cold front that will reach northern Baja California Fri. Fresh to strong southwesterly gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California late tonight through Fri night, ahead of and with the front. Fresh winds and moderate NW swell will follow the front off Baja California Fri into Sat. The front will stall late Fri night and dissipate Sat over the central Gulf of California. In the wake of the front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail west of Baja California Sun into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong gap winds are currently occurring in the Papagayo region. Gentle winds are occurring north of the monsoon trough. Gentle S to SW winds are observed south of the monsoon trough, except in the Gulf of Panama, where moderate N winds are likely occurring. Seas are generally 3 to 4 ft offshore South America and Panama and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except for 5 to 7 ft in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, strong gap winds over the Papagayo region will persist through Fri morning, but fresh to locally strong winds will continue thereafter through Sat night. Moderate to fresh N winds will occur in the Gulf of Panama at night, tonight through Sat night. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate trades prevail north of the ITCZ to near 17N, with mainly light to gentle winds north of 17N to about 25N. Wind speeds are starting to increase north of 28N and west of 128W as a cold front approaches the northern waters. Seas are 7 to 8 ft west of 120W and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front will enter the forecast area today and reach from 30N129W to 26N140W this evening, 30N121W to 25N129W Fri morning, then continue east and reach Baja California Norte midday Fri. Moderate reinforcing swell will follow the cold front Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected north of 28N with this front late today through Fri with seas building to between 8 to 11 ft. Looking ahead, additional reinforcing swell will move south of 30N Sat night and continue progressing S across the area Sun. Trade winds will strengthen Sat night north of 17N and west of 128W, and persist through Mon, and a surface low pressure could form this weekend in the vicinity of 20N140W. Regardless whether a surface low forms, strong to near gale force winds are expected, especially west of 135W from 20N to 25N. $$ Hagen