000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230908
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Dec 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N92W to 06N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 09N119W to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 118W and 
126W and scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 07N
to 12N between 137W to 142W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1020 mb high is centered near 30N119W, leading to gentle 
breeze west of Baja California. Recent scatterometer data 
indicates light to gentle breezes prevail elsewhere in the Mexico
offshore waters. Fresh to strong N winds persist in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region with seas between 5 to 7 ft. Seas in the Gulf
of California are between 2 to 3 ft and 4 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong N winds will continue in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Fri morning before quickly abating during 
the day Fri. The high pressure west of Baja California will 
dissipate Thu night with the approach of the next cold front 
that will reach northern Baja California Fri. Fresh to strong 
southwesterly gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of 
California Thu night through Fri evening, ahead of and with the 
front. Fresh winds and moderate NW swell will follow the front 
off Baja California Fri into Sat. The front will stall late Fri 
night and dissipate Sat over the central Gulf of California. In 
the wake of the front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will 
prevail west of Baja California Sun into Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Scatterometer data shows moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
in the Papagayo region. Gentle winds are occurring north of the 
monsoon trough and light S to SW winds are observed south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across the offshore
forecast waters, except 4 to 6 ft well offshore Guatemala.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo
region will persist through at least Fri night as high pressure 
builds north of the region. Moderate to fresh N winds will occur 
in the Gulf of Panama Thu night and Fri night. Gentle to moderate
breezes will persist elsewhere. No significant swell events are 
forecast during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Scatterometer data shows moderate trades extending north of the 
ITCZ to near 17N, with mainly light to gentle winds north of 
17N. A localized area of fresh to strong winds is noted near an 
area of convection from 08N to 15N between 137W and 140W. Recent
altimeter data confirms seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 16N and west
of 130W due to a decaying NW to N swell. Elsewhere, seas are 5 
to 7 ft west of 110W, and 4 to 6 ft east of 110W south of 10N.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the forecast area 
and reach from 29N127W to 20N134W tonight, then continue east 
and reach Baja California Norte Fri. The decaying swell in the NW
part of the area will subside into Thu, with moderate reinforcing
swell following the cold front Fri. Fresh to strong winds are 
expected north of 28N with this front Thu into Fri with seas
building between 8 to 12 ft. Looking ahead, additional reinforcing
swell will move south of 30N Sat night and continue progressing 
S across the area Sun. Trade winds will strengthen Sun west of 
128W from 17N to 28N, and there is potential for a surface low 
pressure to form in that area. However, confidence on any low 
pressure forming is low at this time.

$$
Torres