000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230349
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Dec 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 06N92W to 09N105W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N105W to 08N129W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 116W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Scatterometer wind data indicates that strong to near gale force
N winds persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tonight. Moderate
to locally fresh NW to N winds persist in the southern and central
Gulf of California. Surface high pressure of 1020 mb is near 30N119W,
leading to a gentle N breeze west of Baja California. Light to gentle
breezes prevail elsewhere in the Mexico offshore waters. Seas are
5 to 7 ft in the Tehuantepec region, 2 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California
and 4 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force N winds will continue in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri morning before quickly
abating during the day Fri. The high pressure west of Baja California
will dissipate Thu night ahead of a cold front that will reach northern
Baja California on Fri. Fresh to strong southwesterly gap winds are
expected in the northern Gulf of California Thu night through Fri
evening, ahead of and with the front. Fresh winds and moderate NW
swell will follow the front off Baja California Fri into Sat. The
front will stall late Fri night and dissipate Sat over the central
Gulf of California. In the wake of the front, moderate to fresh 
NW to N winds will prevail west of Baja California Sun into Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Scatterometer data shows moderate to locally fresh NE winds in 
the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds are occurring elsewhere
north of the monsoon trough while mainly gentle S to SW winds are
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across
the offshore forecast waters, except 4 to 6 ft well offshore 
Guatemala.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will return to the
Papagayo region tonight and persist through at least Fri night as
high pressure builds north of the region. Moderate to fresh N 
winds will occur in the Gulf of Panama Thu night and Fri night. 
Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. No significant
swell events are forecast during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Scatterometer data show mostly moderate trades extending north 
of the ITCZ to 17N, with mainly light to gentle winds north of 
17N. A localized area of fresh winds is noted near an area of 
convection from 09N to 14N between 121W and 125W. Recent 
altimeter data confirms seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 16N and west 
of 126W due to a decaying NW to N swell. Elsewhere, seas are 5 to
7 ft west of 110W, and 4 to 6 ft east of 110W south of 10N.

For the forecast, a cold front will reach from 29N124W to 25N128W
Thu evening, then continue east and reach Baja California Norte 
Fri. The decaying swell in the NW part of the area will subside 
into Thu, with moderate reinforcing swell following the cold 
front Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected north of 28N with 
this front Thu into Fri. Looking ahead, additional reinforcing 
swell will move south of 30N Sat night and continue progressing S
across the area Sun. Trade winds will strengthen Sun west of 
128W from 17N to 28N, and there is potential for a surface low 
pressure to form in that area. However, confidence on any low 
pressure forming is low at this time.

$$
Torres