000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222107 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Dec 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 06N101W to 07.5N106W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N106W to 09N110W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 96W and 98W, from 07N to 10N between 111W and 123W and from 07N to 13N between 125W and 129W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 08.5N to 13N between 84W and 95W and from 05N to 12N between 102W and 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Recent scatterometer wind data indicate that strong to near gale force N winds persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds persist in the southern and central Gulf of California. Surface high pressure of 1021 mb is near 30N120W, leading to a gentle N breeze west of Baja California. Light to gentle breezes prevail elsewhere in the Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 7 to 8 ft in the Tehuantepec region, 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California and 4 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong to near gale force N winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri morning before quickly abating Fri. The high pressure west of Baja California will dissipate Thu night ahead of a cold front that will reach northern Baja California on Fri. Fresh to strong southwesterly gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California Thu night through Fri evening, ahead of and with the front. Fresh winds and moderate NW swell will follow the front off Baja California Fri into Sat. The front will stall late Fri night and dissipate Sat over the central Gulf of California. In the wake of the front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail west of Baja California Sun into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Recent scatterometer data shows moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds are occurring elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while mainly gentle S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across the offshore forecast waters, except 4 to 6 ft well offshore Guatemala. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will return to the Papagayo region tonight and persist through at least Fri night as high pressure builds north of the region. Moderate to fresh N winds will occur in the Gulf of Panama Thu night and Fri night. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Recent scatterometer data show mostly moderate trades extending north of the ITCZ to 18N, with mainly light to gentle winds north of 18N. A localized area of fresh winds is noted near an area of convection from 09N to 14N between 121W and 125W. Recent altimeter data confirms seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 16N and west of 126W due to a decaying NW to N swell. Elsewhere, seas are 5 to 7 ft west of 110W, and 4 to 6 ft east of 110W south of 10N. For the forecast, a cold front will reach from 30N126W to 25N131W Thu evening, then continue east and reach Baja California Norte Fri. The decaying swell in the NW part of the area will subside into Thu, with moderate reinforcing swell following the cold front Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected north of 28N with this front Thu into Fri. Looking ahead, additional reinforcing swell will move south of 30N Sat night and continue progressing S across the area Sun. Trade winds will strengthen Sun west of 128W from 17N to 28N, and there is potential for a surface low pressure to form in that area. However, confidence on any low pressure forming is low at this time. $$ Hagen