000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Dec 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends 08N82W to 07N98W to 08N106W. The ITCZ continues from 08N106W to 09N116W to 09N127W to 08N133W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 87W and 104W and from 06N to 10N between 104W and 123W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 07.5N to 11.5N between 125.5W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The gale warning for the Tehuantepec region has been allowed to expire. Winds are now below gale force. However, strong to near gale force N winds persist in the area. Moderate to fresh NW winds persist through the central and southern Gulf of California. Weak surface high pressure of 1019 mb is located just west of Baja California Norte, leading to a gentle breeze west of Baja California. Light to gentle breezes prevail elsewhere in the Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the Tehuantepec region, 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong to near gale force N winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri morning before quickly abating Fri. High pressure will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through Thu. The high pressure will dissipate ahead of a cold front that will approach northern Baja California on Fri. This pattern will support fresh to strong southwesterly gap winds Thu night through Fri over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front. Fresh winds and moderate NW swell will follow the front off Baja California as it moves across the region through early Sat, before stalling and dissipating over the central Gulf of California late Sat. In the wake of the front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail west of Baja California Sun into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are likely currently occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are occurring elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across the offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will return to the Papagayo region tonight and persist through Fri as high pressure builds north of the region. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will occur in the Gulf of Panama Thu night and Fri night. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 22N129W to 13N132W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 120 nm east of the trough axis, mainly north of 17.5N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell are over the NW portion of the area, NW of the surface trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds persist, with 5 to 7 ft seas west of 120W primarily in NW swell, and 4 to 6 ft seas east of 120W. For the forecast, the surface trough will dissipate today ahead of the next approaching cold front from the northwest. This front will reach from 30N123W to 22N135W Thu evening, then continue east and approach Baja California Fri. The large swell located NW of the trough will subside into Thu, with moderate reinforcing swell following the cold front Fri. Fresh to strong winds are possible north of 28N with this front. Looking ahead, additional reinforcing swell will move south of 30N Sun. Also on Sun, trade winds will strengthen west of 130W. $$ Hagen