000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Dec 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will support gap winds to minimal gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wednesday morning. Seas will build up to 11 ft with the strongest winds. Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week. Seas 8 ft or greater generated by this gap wind event will reach as far west as 12N97W. Please read the latest NWS High seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Of note, the 20-year Climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5 storm-force events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per cold season. Most gale-force events occurred during November and December, while most storm-force winds occurred in January. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends 08N83W to 07N87W to 06N96W. The ITCZ begins from 06N96W to 09N119W to 11N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 06N to 08N between 90W to 97W, and along the ITCZ from 05N to 12N between 100W to 119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section for details. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds persist through the Gulf of California, primarily along the north central Gulf to the entrance of the Gulf, including off of the Pacific coast of Baja California south of San Carlos to Cabo San Lucas. Light to gentle breezes are also noted north of Punta Eugenia off the Pacific coast of Baja California near the center of the surface high is present. Farther to the south, outside of the Tehuantepec area, light to gentle winds are observed elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico with seas of 3-5 ft. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through Thu. The high pressure will dissipate ahead of a cold front that will approach to the northern Baja California by late Fri. This pattern will support fresh to strong westerly gap winds Fri night over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front. Fresh winds and moderate NW swell will follow the front off Baja California as it moves across the region through late Sat, before stalling and dissipating over the southern Gulf of California Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are observed in the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are seen south of the monsoon trough per scatterometer data. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across the offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will continue to pulse in the Papagayo region through the end of the week as high pressure builds north of region through Fri. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted near a surface trough extending from 22N127W to 12N131W. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh winds in the vicinity of the trough. Front N of the area has dissipated and a surface trough now extends southwest to near 30N128W. Long period NW swell follows the trough, and latest altimeter satellite data shows wave heights reaching 8 to 11 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds persist, with 5 to 7 ft seas west of 120W primarily in NW swell, and 4 to 6 ft seas east of 120W. For the forecast, the surface trough will dissipated today ahead of the next approaching cold front from the northwest. The second, stronger front will reach from 30N123W to 22N135W Thu, then continue east and approach Baja California Fri. The large swell following the current front will subside into Thu, with moderate reinforcing swell following the second front. Looking ahead, additional reinforcing swell will move south of 30N Sun. No significant changes elsewhere. $$ Torres