000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190354 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Dec 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 08N83W to 09N100W. The ITCZ continues from 08N112W to 09N128W, then continues W of the 1011 mb low pres from 08N128W to beyond 10N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 240 nm south of the monsoon trough and E of 82W and along the ITCZ from 05N-15N between 112W-126W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N-13N between 127W-136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1026 mb high pressure located near 31N127W extends a ridge across the offshore waters on Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds N of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds S of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate N winds are also noted between Las Maria Islands and Los Cabos, including the entrance to the Gulf of California while light to gentle winds are observed elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, including the Tehuantepec region. High pressure over the State of Nevada supports fresh to strong NW to N winds across the north and central parts of the Gulf of California. A recent scatterometer pass provides observations of 25-30 kt winds over the northern Gulf of California but mainly N of 30N and W of 114W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range N of Cabo San Lazaro, and 4-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail in the Gulf of California, except 5-7 ft in the northern part of the Gulf where the strongest winds can be found. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the north and central parts of the Gulf of California will persist through late tonight and diminish Sunday. A new gap wind event is forecast in the Tehuantepec area beginning Sun night, with gale conditions possible on Tue and Tue night, then fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu night. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 ft with the strongest winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh NE winds are currently observed in the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are seen south of the monsoon trough per scatterometer data. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across the offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through the next several days and into next week, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours each day. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure centered near 31N127W dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 12N to 18N W of 125W. Satellite derived wind data confirmed the presence of these winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. Winds increase to 20-25 kt near a surface trough that extends from 14N106W to a 1010 mb low pres located within the monsoon trough near 10N109W. NW to N swell continues to propagate mainly across the waters west of 110W, producing seas of 8-10 ft. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere roughly S of 17N between 100W-110W. For the forecast, the swell event affecting mainly the waters W of 110W will gradually decay Sun. The next cold front will enter the NW corner of the forecast area on Sun, with fresh to strong winds on either side of the front. The front will reach from 31N133W to 25N140W by early Mon morning. Another set of long period NW swell will follow the front, building seas to 8-12 ft. $$ Torres