383 AXPZ20 KNHC 160344 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Dec 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N76W to 10N82W to 06N99W. The ITCZ extends from 06N99W to 10N119W, then resumes W of a surface trough from 07.5N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N E OF 86W, and from 14N to 18N between 126W and 140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 06.5N to 10N between 118W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The cold front sweeping SE through the area today has dissipated across the central Gulf of California and Baja California Sur this evening. 1025 mb high pressure behind the front located near 30.5N125W is forcing fresh to locally strong NNW winds within 120 nm of the Pacific coast of Baja and throughout the full length of the Gulf of California. Seas inside the Gulf are 4-6 ft and 8 to 12 ft in strong NW swell across the offshore waters, except 12-13 far NW waters. Gentle to moderate N winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail offshore Cabo Corrientes to offshore the Mexican state of Guerrero. Northerly gap winds to 25 continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, where seas are 7-8 ft. Fresh NW to N winds will continue through Thu morning on both sides of Baja California. A period of fresh to strong NW to N winds is expected west of Baja California Norte Thu night. Similar winds are forecast in the northern Gulf of California Fri night into Sat. Large NW swell will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of Baja California through tonight, and slowly subside to 8-11 ft on Thu. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the current strong gap wind event is expected to prevail through tonight before diminishing significantly in strength and areal coverage Thu. Winds are expected to diminish to fresh to strong and remain confined to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu and Thu night before shutting down Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh E winds prevail across the Papagayo region, and are expected to pulse to strong at night through Thu night. Seas will generally persist at 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas 3 to 4 ft in the Gulf of Panama are forecast to pulse again tonight. Moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough with seas of 5-6 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. These conditions are forecast to remain through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge continues to build in across the regional waters behind the dissipated cold front across Baja Sur, and extends WNW to ESE along 32N to 31N and into Baja Norte. Large NW swell continues over the Pacific waters. Seas of 9 to 15 ft prevail across the water N of 09N and W of 113W, with highest seas between 120W and 130W. The swell will gradually subside as it moves southward, but seas of 12 ft will reach as far south as 16N latitude tonight into early Thu and gradually subside across the regional waters through Fri. Fresh NE trade winds prevail across most of the waters S of 19N and W of 120W this evening, and will become the zone of highest seas later tonight through Thu as the peak swell moves into this area. A surface trough is analyzed along the ITCZ from 12N122W TO 07N125.5W, and is accompanied by active weather, winds to 25 kt and seas 10 to 11 ft. Fresh trades will continue through Sat north of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 120W as the ridge prevails. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move southeast of 30N140W on Sun, with large swell behind it. $$ Stripling