000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140346
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Dec 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W to 09.5N84W to 06N99W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06N99W to 08.5N126W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 05.5N to 07N between 87W 
and 97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from  
11N to 14N between 101W and 110W, and within 60 nm of line from 
21N129W to 17.5N138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues to 
support northerly wind flow across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, 
resulting in strong northerly gap winds to 30 kt across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, with fresh winds to 20 kt extending downwind to 
near 14N96W. This strong gap wind flow is expected to prevail 
through Wed, along with 8 to 10 ft seas. Winds will then diminish
to fresh to strong through Friday.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is located offshore of Baja
California near 24.5N120W, and is promoting to light to gentle 
winds across most of the rest of the Mexican offshore waters.
Moderate northerly winds prevail across the nearshore waters from
Sinaloa to the Cabo Corrientes area, while moderate S to SW winds
have developed across the far northern Gulf of California. Seas 
are 2 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

A approaching cold front has reached along 30N126W this evening
and will move into the waters W of Baja California Norte Tue.
Fresh to locally strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front 
N of 24N and in the northern Gulf of California Tue night, with a
brief period of fresh to locally strong NW winds behind it 
through Wed as well. Large NW swell will move into the far N 
offshore waters tonight, with increasing seas expected through 
Wed, peaking at 10-15 ft N of 23N early Wed morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E continue across the Papagayo region with
seas to 7 ft. These gap winds are forecast to continue through 
Wed, and then diminish to moderate to fresh through Fri night. 
Peak seas are forecast to be 6-7 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly
winds and seas to 4 ft in the Gulf of Panama are forecast to 
pulse nightly through Wed night. Moderate S to SW winds are 
south of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. Light 
to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. These conditions are 
forecast to remain for much of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weakening high pressure of 1020 mb is just W of the Baja offshore
waters near 24.5N120W. A cold front is moving SE across the
northern waters and extends from 30N126W to 24N140W. This front 
is forecast to continue moving E-SE into mid-week, accompanied 
by very large NW swell. Seas are currently 8-16 ft behind the 
front. A pair of troughs are to the south of the front, along 
127W and 133W, with the resultant pressure gradient producing a 
zone of moderate to fresh E winds from 07-18N between 110W and 
130W. Elsewhere mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds are N of
24N with seas to 6-7 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh SE winds 
are S of the ITCZ W of 118W with seas 6 to 7 ft. 

Large NW swell will continue to build across the NW waters and 
move east of 120W Tue afternoon. Seas are expected to peak at 
18-19 ft across the far NW waters Tue morning, with seas 
remaining 12 ft and greater N of 17N and W of 120W through Wed
night.

$$
Stripling