000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132020
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Dec 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 09N86W to 06N94W. The 
ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 07N107W, then from 07N120W to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N from
88W to 98W, 10N to 13N between 99W and 103W, and from 15N to 21N
between 120W and 125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is causing near-
gale force gap northerly winds in the Tehuantepec region, which
will prevail through Wed, along with 8 to 10 ft seas. Winds will
then diminish to fresh to strong through Friday.

Another high of of 1022 mb is noted near 25N120W, leading to
light to gentle winds across most of the rest of the Mexican 
offshore waters. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California and
4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the waters W of 
Baja California Norte Tue, Fresh to locally strong SW winds are 
expected ahead of the front N of 24N and in the northern Gulf of
California Tue night, with a period of fresh to locally strong 
winds possible behind it through Wed as well. Large NW swell 
will move into the far N offshore waters tonight, with 
increasing seas expected through Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E continue across the Papagayo region with
seas to 7 ft. These gap winds are forecast to continue through 
Wed, and then diminish to moderate to fresh into Fri night. Peak
seas are forecast to be 6-7 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly 
winds and seas to 4 ft in the Gulf of Panama are forecast to 
pulse highest nightly through Wed night. Moderate S to SW winds 
are south of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. 
Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. These conditions 
are forecast to remain for much of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the forecast waters N of 15N, centered
around 25N120W. A pair of troughs are to the south of the ridge,
with the resultant pressure gradient producing a zone of moderate
to fresh E winds from 16-24N between 120W and 134W. A cold front
extends from 30N127W to 24N140W. This front is forecast to 
continue moving E-SE into mid-week, accompanied by very large NW
swell. Seas are currently 8-14 ft behind the front. Elsewhere 
mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds are N of 24N with seas to
6 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh SE winds are S of the ITCZ W
of 118W with seas 6 to 7 ft. 

Large NW swell will continue to build across the NW waters and 
move east of 120W Tue afternoon. Seas are expected to peak at 
18-19 ft across the far NW waters Tue morning, with seas 
remaining 12 ft and greater N of 17N and W of 120W through Wed
night.

$$
KONARIK