000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Dec 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong surface high pressure building in the wake of a frontal boundary extending from Tarpon Springs, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon is supporting a gale force gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec. Strong to gale force N-NE winds are already ongoing across Tehuantepec with 8 to 10 ft seas N of 12N. Latest model guidance indicates the gale event will continue through late Mon morning with seas building to 12 ft tonight. Strong to near gale force N-NE winds will continue to affect the Tehuantepec region and downstream waters Mon afternoon through Wed and then diminish to fresh to strong speeds through Fri. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 07N103W. The ITCZ extends from 07N103W to 08N120W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 04N E of 91W and from 08N to 14N between 90W and 102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO See the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing gale force gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec. Recent scatterometer data show light to gentle northerly winds across the Baja California offshores, the Gulf of California and the entrance of the Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft along the Gulf of California and 4-6 ft in NW swell across the offshore waters of Baja California. In Tehuantepec, strong to gale force winds are ongoing with 8-10 ft seas. Looking ahead, gale conditions in the region of Tehuantepec will continue through Mon morning, however strong to near gale force winds will prevail in this region through Wed with seas of 8-10 ft. Fresh to strong winds will then continue and gradually diminish through Fri. A strong cold front will move into the northern waters Tue. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front across the offshore waters N of 27N Tue afternoon before the front arrives Tue night. NW swell will move into the northern offshore waters early Tue and raise seas 8 to 12 ft by Tue afternoon, and peak at 14-15 ft across the waters of Baja Norte Wed morning. Meanwhile, similar strong SW to W gap winds will develop inside the N Gulf of California Tue and reach around 30 kt Tue evening, when seas will build to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE to E are ongoing across the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. These gap winds are forecast to continue through Thu, and then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds through Fri. Peak seas are forecast to be 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas to 4 ft in the Gulf of Panama are forecast through Wed. Moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. These conditions are forecast to remain for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging dominates the forecast waters N of 17N between 109W and 132W, centered on a 1022 mb high near 29N126W. A pair of trough are to the south of the ridge, which pressure gradient is producing a zone of 15-20 kt winds from 15-20N between 120W and 138W. A strong cold front is moving across the far NW waters and is forecast to continue to move E-SE through early next week, accompanied by very large NW swell. Seas are currently 8-11 ft behind the front. Elsewhere mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds are N of 20N with seas to 6 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh SE winds are S of the ITCZ W of 118W with seas 6 to 7 ft. Large NW swell will continue to enter the NW waters tonight and move east of 120W Tue afternoon. Seas are expected to peak at 18-19 ft across the far NW waters early Tue. $$ Ramos