000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120322 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Dec 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong surface high pressure building in the wake of a cold front moving across the western Gulf of Mexico tonight will support the next gale force gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec. Strong N-NE winds will begin to spill across Tehuantepec after midnight, rapidly increasing to near gale force by Sun morning. Gale force winds are expected across Tehuantepec N of 15N by the afternoon hours and will continue through late evening, and then persist around 30 kt through Mon morning. Peak seas during the highest winds are expected to build up to 12 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Heavy showers and tstorms prevail across the mountainous interior of extreme NW Colombia and to the adjacent coastal waters to 79W. Active weather is forecast to continue across NW Colombia and extend across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters through the weekend. An energetic upper level trough has moved over the far eastern Tropical Pacific, and will support convection that develops across this area. This may result in areas of deep convection tonight through Sun evening, with rainfall totals of 3 to 10 inches possible across the western slopes of the mountains and adjacent coastal zones. Rough marine conditions are also expected during this period and mariners should exercise caution. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 08N78W to 10.5N84W to 06.5N94W to 07N106W. The ITCZ extends from 07N106W to 06.5N124W to 09N137W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04.5N to 07.5N E of 81W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 19N between 121W and 132W, and from 08N to 11N between 129W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO See the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming gale force gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are across the Baja California offshore waters tonight with 5-8 ft seas in NW swell. A tightening pressure gradient between a ridge to the northwest of Baja California and a trough along western Mexico is generating fresh NW winds along the Gulf of California all the way south to the offshore waters of Jalisco, with seas of 4-6 ft through the entire Gulf. Strong winds continue offshore surrounding the Cabo Corrientes offshore waters where seas are 6-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere across the S and SW Mexico offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Locally strong winds are forecast near Cabo Corrientes through early tonight, where seas will build to near 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds will return to Cabo Corrientes adjacent waters Mon night through Wed. The next strong gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin early Sun with strong winds rapidly increasing to gale force by Sun afternoon. Gale conditions are forecast through Sun night, however strong to near gale force winds are forecast to continue through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh gap winds continue across the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Moderate N winds continue across the Gulf of Panama where seas are 4-5 ft. Moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Otherwise, see the Special Features Section for details on heavy rainfall expected over the Colombia and Panama offshore waters through the weekend. Fresh NE gap winds will continue to pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W, centered on a 1022 mb high near 31N128W. The remnants of a cold front in the form of a shear line linger across the waters from 22N120W to 23.5N132W, with fresh E winds to 20 kt within 90 nm of this boundary, and seas to 8 ft in N swell. Mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds are N of 25N with seas to 7 ft in NW swell. Lower pressure along the ITCZ combined with the ridge to the north is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 22N and west of about 117W, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are S of the ITCZ W of 118W with seas 6 to 7 ft. A cold front is forecast to move across the far NW waters Sun through early next week, accompanied by very large NW swell. This large NW swell will enter the NW waters Sun night and move southeast of 120W by Mon evening. Seas are expected to peak at 18-19 ft across the far NW waters early Tue. $$ Stripling