000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Dec 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Scattered showers and tstms are ongoing across the mountainous interior of NW Colombia, and extend westward across the regional waters to 83.5W. Active weather is forecast to continue across NW Colombia and extend across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters through the weekend. An energetic upper level trough is expected to move eastward across the far eastern Tropical Pacific this weekend, and will enhance any convection that develops. This may result in areas of strong convection late Sat through Mon, with rainfall totals of 3 to 10 inches possible across the western slopes of the mountains and adjacent coastal zones. Rough marine conditions are also expected during this period and mariners should exercise caution. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 06N94W to 07N108W. The ITCZ extends from 07N109W to 10N116W to 07N40W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Special Features off the coast of Colombia, scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 19N between 108W and 120W, and from 07N to 10N W of 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of California and and Baja California Norte this morning, supporting moderate to fresh northly winds behind the front with seas to 5 ft in the northern Gulf and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range N of Punta Eugenia. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over west-central Mexico and a ridge extending across the Baja offshores is generating moderate to fresh winds at the entrance of the Gulf of California and south of Cabo San Lucas to the offshore waters of Jalisco. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft in this region being supported by mixed SW and NW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the S and SW Mexico offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. The cold front will move S-SE and dissipate across Baja California Sur late today, while a surface trough develops along the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between the trough and moderate high pressure in the wake of the front will generate moderate to fresh winds along the Baja California offshores, the southern half of the Gulf of California all the way south to Jalisco offshore waters through Sat. Locally strong winds are forecast near Cabo Corrientes Fri night through Sun, where seas will build to around 8 ft. Otherwise, strong N gap winds will develop Sat night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with near gale conditions possible Sun through Mon. Gale conditions are possible beginning Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong winds gap winds continue across the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Otherwise, see the Special Features Section for details on significant rainfall expected over the Colombia and Panama offshore waters through the weekend. Fresh NE gap winds will continue to pulse to near strong at night across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere the next several days, except for onshore SW to W winds pulsing to fresh winds across the offshore waters of southern Colombia and Ecuador early Sat through Sat evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging dominates the forecast waters N of 17N and W of 111W. A cold front is moving across the Baja California Norte offshore waters and extends from 27N120W to 27N127W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are N of the front with seas to 8 ft in NW swell. Lower pressure along the ITCZ combined with the ridge to the north is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 24N and west of about 130W, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Diffluent flow aloft to the E of of a middle to upper level trough, continues to support a broad area of showers and isolated tstms over the central tropical waters where a surface trough is analyzed from 14N113W to 11N117W. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere N of the ITCZ, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are S of the ITCZ W of 117W with seas to 7 ft. The fresh trade winds and seas around 8 ft in the west-central waters south of the ridge will gradually diminish and decay through Sat as the pressure gradient continues to weaken. A cold front will move into the northern waters this morning, with building seas and freshening winds behind it, between Baja California and 130W. Yet another front is forecast to move far NW waters Sun through early next week, accompanied by very large NW swell. This large NW swell will enter the NW waters Sun night and move east of 120W by Mon evening. Seas are expected to peak at 18-20 ft across the far NW waters early Tue. $$ Ramos