000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100927 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Dec 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Scattered showers and tstms are ongoing across the mountainous interior of NW Colombia, and extend westward across the regional waters to 83W. Active weather is forecast to continue across NW Colombia and extend across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters through the weekend. An energetic upper level trough is expected to move eastward across the far eastern Tropical Pacific this weekend, and will enhance any convection that develops. This may result in areas of strong convection late Sat through Mon, with rainfall totals of 3 to 10 inches possible across the western slopes of the mountains and adjacent coastal zones. Rough marine conditions are also expected during this period and mariners should exercise caution. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 05.5N79W to 08N84W to 09N108W. The ITCZ extends from 09N108W to 10.5N116W then resumes near 10.5N120W to 09.5N129W to beyond 07N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02.5N to 06.5N E of 83W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 09N to 16N between 109W and 120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11.5N between 120W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Weak high pressure of 1017 mb is centered offshore of Baja California Sur tonight near 22N116W. This is promoting gentle to moderate NW winds across Baja California Norte, while gentle to moderate N to NE winds are see off of Baja Sur. Seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range in NW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the S and SW Mexico offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. In the Gulf of California, a lingering surface trough across the extreme northern Gulf is support fresh to strong SW winds N of 29N with seas to 7 ft. A cold front is move SE across the Baja California Norte and the adjacent waters tonight, and supporting the fresh to strong SW to W winds in the northern Gulf of California. The front will move S-SE and dissipate across Baja California Sur late Fri, while a surface trough develops along the Gulf of California Fri. The pressure gradient between trough and moderate high pressure behind the front will generate moderate to fresh winds along the Baja California offshores, the southern half of the Gulf of California all the way south to Jalisco offshore waters through Sat. Locally strong winds are forecast near Cabo Corrientes Fri night through Sun, where seas will build to around 8 ft. Otherwise, strong N gap winds will develop Sat night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with near gale conditions possible Sun through Mon. Gale conditions are possible beginning Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong winds gap winds continue overnight across the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Otherwise, see the Special Features Section for details on significant rainfall expected over the Colombia and Panama offshore waters through the weekend. Fresh NE gap winds will continue to pulse to near strong at night across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere the next several days, except for onshore SW to W winds pulsing to fresh winds across the offshore waters of southern Colombia and Ecuador early Sat through Sat evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 115W, centered on a 1030 mb high near 38N138W. Lower pressure along the ITCZ combined with the ridge to the north is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 25N and west of about 126W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. A deep layered upper trough remains centered near 14N130W. Active convection persists along and north of the ITCZ to the east of this feature along about 118W. Recent scatterometer across that area showed E to SE winds of 20-25 near and north of the trough, where seas are estimated at 7-9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The fresh trade winds and seas around 8 ft in the west-central waters south of the ridge will gradually diminish and decay through Sat as the pressure gradient continues to weaken. A cold front will move into the northern waters this morning, with building seas and freshening winds behind it, between Baja California and 130W. Yet another front is forecast to move far NW waters Sun through early next week, accompanied by very large NW swell. This large NW swell will enter the NW waters Sun night and move east of 120W by Mon evening. Seas are expected to peak at 18-20 ft across the far NW waters early Tue. $$ Stripling