000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100350 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Dec 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy showers and scattered tstms are ongoing across the mountainous interior of NW Colombia, but has diminished during recent hours across the regional near and offshore waters. Active weather is forecast to prevail across NW Colombia and extend across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters through the weekend. An energetic upper level trough is expected to move eastward across the far eastern Tropical Pacific this weekend, and will enhance any convection that develops. This may result in areas of strong to intense convection late Sat through Mon, with rainfall totals of 3 to 10 inches possible. The highest rainfall accumulations are expected across the coastal waters of western Colombia and extending to the western slopes of the mountains. Rough marine conditions are expected during this period and mariners should exercise caution. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N75W to 06.5N79W to 09N89W to 07.5N104W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N104W to 11N113W then resumes near 10.5N117W to 10N125W to beyond 06N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 06N E of 85W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 09N to 15N between 110W and 127W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 08.5N between 127W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Weak high pressure of 1017 mb is centered offshore of Baja California Sur this evening. This is promoting gentle to moderate NW to W winds across Baja California Norte, while gentle to moderate N to NE winds are see off of Baja Sur. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in NW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the S and SW Mexico offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. In the Gulf of California, a lingering surface trough across the extreme northern Gulf is support fresh to strong SW winds N of 28.5N with seas to 7 ft. A cold front will move across the Baja California Norte tonight, leading to fresh to near gale force SW-W winds in the northern Gulf of California. The front will dissipate across Baja California Sur on Fri and a surface trough will develop along the Gulf of California Fri. This trough will generate moderate to fresh winds along the Baja California offshores, the southern half of the Gulf of California all the way south to Jalisco offshore waters. Locally strong winds are forecast near Cabo Corrientes Fri night through Sun. Otherwise, strong N gap winds will develop Sat night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with near gale conditions likely developing Sun morning through Tue. Gale conditions are possible beginning Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong winds gap winds continue this evening across the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Otherwise, see the Special Features Section for details on significant rainfall activity expected over the Colombia and Panama offshore waters through the weekend. For the forecast, fresh NE winds will continue to pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere the next several days, except pulsing to fresh offshore of southern Colombia and Ecuador early Sat through Sat evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging dominate the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 109W, centered on a 1030 mb high near 39N139W. Lower pressure along the ITCZ combined with the ridge to the north is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 25N and west of about 128W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft outside of the area of moderate to fresh winds. For the forecast, the fresh trade winds and seas in the west- central waters will gradually diminish and decay through this evening as the pressure gradient continues to weaken. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters tonight, with building seas and freshening winds behind it on Fri, between Baja California and 135W. Yet another front is forecast to move southeast of 30N140W Sun through early next week with a very large set of NW swell potentially behind it. $$ Stripling