000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Dec 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy showers and scattered tstms are ongoing within 120 nm off the coast of Colombia with scatterometer data showing fresh to near gale-force winds from 02N to 05N and E of 80W. These conditions are forecast to prevail and extend across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters through the weekend with rainfall totals estimated to be from 3 to 10 inches. The highest amount of rainfall is expected to prevail off the coast of Colombia. Rough marine conditions are expected and mariners should exercise caution. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N92W to 08N101W. The ITCZ extends from 08N101W to 11N109W then resumes near 10N116W to 07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N E of 83W, and from 07N to 12N between 122W and 129W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 14N between 110W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Gentle to moderate NW winds are ongoing along the Baja California offshores with seas in the 3 to 4 ft range in NW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the S and SW Mexico offshore waters with seas to 4 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. In the Gulf of California, the passage of a surface trough continue to support fresh to strong SW winds N of 28N with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Baja California Norte tonight, thus leading to fresh to near gale force SW-W winds in the northern Gulf of California. The front will dissipate across Baja California Sur on Fri and a surface trough will develop along the Gulf of California Fri. This trough will generate moderate to fresh winds along the Baja California offshores, the southern half of the Gulf of California all the way south to Jalisco offshore waters. Locally strong winds are forecast near Cabo Corrientes Fri night through Sun. Otherwise, strong N gap winds will develop Sat night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with near gale conditions likely developing Sun morning through Tue. Gale conditions are possible beginning Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate N winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 4 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Otherwise, see the Special Features Section for details on significant rainfall activity expected over the Colombia and Panama offshore waters through the weekend. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse in the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere the next several days, except pulsing to fresh offshore of southern Colombia and Ecuador early Sat through Sat evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging dominate the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 109W. Lower pressure along the ITCZ combined with the higher pressure to the north is leading to fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 24N and west of about 130W, along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft outside of the area of moderate to fresh winds. For the forecast, the fresh trade winds and seas in the west- central waters will gradually diminish and decay through this evening as the pressure gradient continues to weaken. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters tonight, with building seas and freshening winds behind it on Fri, between Baja California and 135W. Yet another front is forecast to move southeast of 30N140W Sun through early next week with a very large set of NW swell potentially behind it. $$ Ramos