000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090729
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Dec 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
06N80W to 08N100W. The ITCZ extends from 08N100W to 08N125W to
06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 08N between 79W and 82W, from 08N to 12N 
between 122W and 126W, and from 16N to 19N between 119W and 125W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 
126W and 129W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Moderate NW to N winds are ongoing near Cabo Corrientes, with
moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 
moderate S-SW winds in the northern Gulf of California.
Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 3 ft
or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a cold front moving through later today and
tonight will lead to fresh to near gale force SW-W winds in the 
northern Gulf of California, followed by a period of fresh winds 
throughout the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes Fri and Sat, locally 
strong near Cabo Corrientes. For the waters west of Baja 
California, seas will build in the wake of the front over the 
weekend. A larger sea event is possible early next week. Strong N
gap winds will develop Sat night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
with near gale conditions likely by the end of the weekend into 
early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the Papagayo region. 
Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 6
ft across the waters, highest in the Papagayo region and offshore
of Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail elsewhere through the next several days, except 
pulsing to fresh offshore of southern Colombia and Ecuador early 
Sat through Sat evening.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front extends from 1019 mb low pressure near 
25N125W to 27N124W to 22N126W to 23N140W. Moderate to fresh 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell prevail behind the front.
High pressure ridging south of the front is weakening as the 
front encroaches. A mid-level trough is located near 128W-130W, 
while the associated surface trough has become diffuse. Lower 
pressure along the ITCZ combined with the higher pressure to the 
north is leading to fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ 
to around 25N and west of about 130W, along with seas of 7 to 10 
ft. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere, except 
moderate to fresh within 90 nm of 09.5N110W where a weak surface 
trough may be forming. Seas are 5 to 8 ft outside of the area of 
moderate to fresh winds.

For the forecast, the fresh trade winds and seas in the west- 
central waters will gradually diminish and decay through today 
as the pressure gradient continues to weaken. The cold front will
gradually stall while dissipating today. Another cold front is 
expected to move into the northern waters later today and 
tonight, with building seas and freshening winds behind it on 
Fri, between Baja California and 135W. Yet another front is 
forecast to move southeast of 30N140W Sun through early next week
with a very large set of NW swell potentially behind it.

$$
Lewitsky