198 
AXPZ20 KNHC 090212
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Dec 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
07N90W to 08N102W. The ITCZ extends from 08N102W to 09N125W to
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N
between 122W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Moderate NW to N winds are ongoing near Cabo Corrientes, 
otherwise gentle winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3
ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong N gap winds will develop Sat night in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with near gale conditions likely by the 
end of the weekend into early next week. A cold front moving 
through Thu night will lead to fresh to strong winds in the 
northern Gulf of California, followed by a period of fresh winds 
throughout the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes Fri and Sat. For the 
waters west of Baja California, seas will build in the wake of 
the front over the weekend. A larger sea event is possible early 
next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds are occurring early this evening in the 
Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring 
elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail elsewhere through the next several days, except 
pulsing to fresh offshore of southern Colombia and Ecuador early 
Sat through Sat evening.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 1017 mb low pressure near 26N125W to
28N124W to 24N124W to 23N130W to 25N140W. Moderate to fresh 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell prevail behind the front.
High pressure ridging south of the front is weakening as the 
front encroaches. A mid-level trough is located near 128W-130W
with scattered moderate convection is flaring near this trough 
from 11N to 18N between 122W and 129W. The associated surface 
trough has become diffuse during the past few hours. Lower 
pressure along the ITCZ combined with the higher pressure to the 
north is leading to fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ 
to around 20N and west of 130W, along with seas of 8 to 10 ft. 
Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere along with seas 
of 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the fresh trade winds and seas in the west- 
central waters will gradually diminish and decay through Thu as 
the pressure gradient continues to weaken. The cold front will
gradually stall while weakening tonight. Another cold front is 
expected to move into the northern waters Thu and Thu night, with
building seas and freshening winds behind it on Fri, between 
Baja California and 135W. Yet another front is forecast to move 
southeast of 30N140W Sun through early next week with a very 
large set of NW swell potentially behind it.

$$
Lewitsky