000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081532
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Dec 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N76W
to 06N85W to 08N105W. The ITCZ extends from 08N105W to 07N126W
and from 07N131W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 11N to 23N between 116W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate 
to fresh winds are near Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, gentle winds
prevail. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will redevelop this 
weekend, with gale conditions possible Sun and Sun night. A cold 
front moving through Thu and Thu night will lead to fresh to 
strong winds in the northern Gulf of California, followed by a 
period of fresh winds throughout the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes Fri 
and Sat. For the waters west of Baja California, seas will build 
in the wake of the front over the weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the Papagayo region. 
Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 
6 ft across the waters, except 3 to 5 ft offshore of Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region through through the next several days. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the next several 
days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 1015 mb low pressure near 31N123W to
25N128W to 30N140W. Fresh winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft in NW 
swell prevail behind the front. High pressure ridging south of 
the front is weakening as the front encroaches. A weak surface 
trough near the monsoon trough along 125W combined with the
higher pressure to the north is leading to fresh NE to E trade 
winds north of the ITCZ to around 22N and west of 130W, along 
with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring 
elsewhere along with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the fresh trade winds and seas in the west- 
central waters will gradually diminish and decay through Thu as 
the pressure gradient continues to weaken. The cold front will
gradually stall while weakening through the day with seas behind
the front subsiding to less than 8 ft. Another cold front is 
expected to move into the northern waters Thu and Thu night, with
building seas and freshening winds behind it on Fri, between 
Baja California and 135W. Yet another front is forecast to move
southeast of 30N140W Sun with a very large set of NW swell
potentially behind it.

$$
KONARIK