000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080732
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Dec 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N75W
to 06N80W to 08N109W. The ITCZ extends from 08N109W to 08N130W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N
between 115W and 117W, and from 15N to 25N between 118W and 
127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate
to fresh winds are in the northern Gulf of California and also
near Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail. 
Seas are 5 to 7 ft near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 1 to 3 feet in 
the Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will persist in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through until sunrise, then redevelop this 
weekend, with gale conditions possible Sun and Sun night. A cold 
front moving through Thu and Thu night will lead to fresh to 
strong winds in the northern Gulf of California, followed by a 
period of fresh winds throughout the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes Fri
and Sat. For the waters west of Baja California, seas will build
in the wake of the front over the weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the Papagayo region. 
Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 
6 ft across the waters, except 3 to 5 ft offshore of Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region through through the next several days. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the next several 
days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 1013 mb low pressure just north of the
area near 31N123W to 30N122W to 27N127W to 30N135W. Fresh winds
and seas of 7 to 8 ft in NW swell prevail behind the front. High
pressure ridging south of the front is weakening as the front
encroaches. A weak surface trough that was embedded in the
monsoon trough near 125W has dissipated. Even so, the pressure 
gradient between the high and lower pressure near the ITCZ is 
producing fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 
22N and west of 130W, along with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Gentle to 
moderate winds are occurring elsewhere along with seas of 5 to 8
ft.

For the forecast, the fresh trade winds and seas in the west- 
central waters will gradually diminish and decay through Thu as 
the pressure gradient continues to weaken. The cold front will
gradually stall while weakening through the day with seas behind
the front subsiding to less than 8 ft. Another cold front is 
expected to move into the northern waters Thu and Thu night, with
building seas and freshening winds behind it on Fri, between 
Baja California and 135W. Yet another front is forecast to move
southeast of 30N140W Sun with a very large set of NW swell
potentially behind it.

$$
Lewitsky