000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071525
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Dec 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1400 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N75W
to 09N84W to 08N102W. The ITCZ extends from 08N102W to 08N115W, 
then resumes west of a surface trough from 09N120W to 08N130W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 20N115W to 
10N115W to 06N122W to 10N124W to 20N115W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 10N127W to 08N126W
to 06N133W to 08N133W to 10N127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh to strong N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 
in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft west of Baja California and 
1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail 
elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will persist in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec through early Wed. Strong to near gale force winds 
are possible this weekend. Fresh to strong S-SW winds will pulse in 
the northern Gulf of California through this afternoon, then again 
Thu and Thu night ahead of a cold front. Freshening winds are 
forecast throughout the Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes behind 
the front Fri through Sat night, with building seas west of Baja 
California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the Papagayo region. 
Gentle winds are occurring elsewhere, locally moderate near the
Azuero Peninsula as well as near the border of Ecuador and Peru.
Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region through Wed, then again Thu through Fri. Gentle 
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the next several
days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the subtropics, anchored by 1028 mb
high pressure just north of the area near 31N140W. A surface trough 
is embedded in the ITCZ from 10N116W to 06N119W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted near the trough, as well as 
locally higher winds and seas. The pressure gradient between the 
high and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing fresh strong NE 
to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 23N and west of 130W, 
along with seas of 8 to 13 ft per recent altimeter data, highest 
near 16N139W. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring elsewhere north 
of the ITCZ and west of about 115W along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. 
Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the remainder of the waters. South of the 
ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds prevail.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds and large seas
in the west-central waters will gradually diminish and subside
through Thu as the pressure gradient weakens. A cold front will 
move south of 30N later today, reaching from 30N123W to 25N125W 
to 25N136W by Wed morning. Fresh N winds and 7 to 8 ft seas are 
expected north of this front. Another cold front is expected to
move into the northern waters Thu and Thu night, with building 
seas and freshening winds behind it on Fri, between Baja 
California and 135W.

$$
KONARIK