496 
AXPZ20 KNHC 070153
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Dec 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0210 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N75W
to 08N89W. The ITCZ extends from 08N89W to 08N102W to 10N110W to
09N114W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 08N119W to
08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted within 16N110W to 10N109W to 06N125W to 
09N127W to 16N110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A fairly relaxed pressure gradient is allowing winds to be 
light to gentle across most the offshore waters early this
evening. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft west of Baja California 
and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Seas of 3 to 5 ft 
prevail elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will develop in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight through early Wed. A strong to 
possibly gale-force gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late Sat night into Sun. Fresh to strong S-SW winds 
will pulse in the northern Gulf of California late tonight 
through Tue afternoon, then again Thu and Thu night ahead of a 
cold front. Freshening winds are forecast throughout the Gulf of 
California to Cabo Corrientes behind the front Fri through Sat 
night, with building seas west of Baja California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Patches of scattered moderate convection prevail along the 
monsoon trough off the coasts of southern Costa Rica and Panama.
Fresh winds are likely occurring in the Papagayo region. Gentle 
winds are occurring elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, as 
well as south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft 
across the waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region later this evening through Wed, then again Thu 
through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere 
through the next several days. Isolated to scattered 
thunderstorms will be south of Panama and Costa Rica tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the subtropics, anchored by high
pressure just north of the area. The pressure gradient between 
the high and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing fresh 
strong NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 23N and 
west of 125W, along with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh 
winds are occurring elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of about
110W along with seas of 6 to 8 ft, except near 11N115W where 
winds are fresh to strong near a surface trough embedded in the 
ITCZ from 12N114W to 06N118W. South of the ITCZ, moderate winds
prevail. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the area of 
strong winds north of the ITCZ, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 11
ft will continue north of the ITCZ to about 23N and west of 125W
through Tue due to the strong pressure gradient in that area. A 
cold front will move south of 30N Tue, reaching from 30N123W to 
25N125W to 25N136W by Wed morning. Fresh N winds and 7 to 8 ft 
seas are expected north of this front. Looking further ahead, 
another cold front is expected to approach the northern waters 
Thu night, with building seas and freshening winds behind it on 
Fri, between Baja California and 135W.

$$
Lewitsky