000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062051
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Dec 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 09N84W
to 08N97W. The ITCZ extends from 08N97W to 08N114W, then resumes
from 08N118W to 07N140W. A surface trough is along the ITCZ from
11N113W to 07N118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
and south of the monsoon trough from 05N to 09N between 77W and
85W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection 
is occurring in the vicinity of the surface trough from 08N to 
13N between 110W and 126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A fairly relaxed pressure gradient is allowing winds to be 
light to gentle across most the offshore waters this afternoon. 
Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft west of Baja California and 1 to 3 
ft over the Gulf of California. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail 
elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh SW winds will develop in the northern 
Gulf of California tonight, increasing to fresh to strong early Tue,
but quickly diminishing Tue night. Another brief round of fresh 
to strong SW winds will return Thu night. Fresh to strong N winds
are expected to develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight
or early Tue, diminishing Tue night. Fresh NW to N winds are 
possible near Cabo Corrientes Tue through Wed. Light to gentle 
winds should prevail elsewhere through Thu. A cold front could 
approach northern Baja California late this week resulting in 
freshening winds throughout the Gulf of California to Cabo 
Corrientes, and building seas west of Baja California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Patches of scattered moderate convection prevail along the 
monsoon trough off the coasts of southern Costa Rica, Panama and
northern Colombia. Fresh winds are likely occurring in the 
Papagayo region with seas near 6 ft. Gentle winds are occurring 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Recent ASCAT satellite wind
data show moderate S-SW winds south of the monsoon trough, where
recent altimeter data show seas in the 4 to 6 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds in the Papagayo region will
increase to fresh to strong tonight and prevail through Wed 
morning, then moderate to fresh through Thu. Fresh to strong 
winds are forecast to pulse again Thu night through early Fri. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue S of the monsoon 
trough through Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the subtropics, anchored by a 1030
mb high pressure near 32N137W. The pressure gradient between the
high and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing fresh strong 
NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 23N and west of 
125W. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring elsewhere north of 
the ITCZ and west of about 110W. South of the ITCZ, moderate 
winds prevail. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the area of
strong winds north of the ITCZ, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 11
ft will continue north of the ITCZ to about 23N and west of 125W
through Tue due to the strong pressure gradient in that area. A 
weak cold front will move south of 30N late Tue, reaching from 
30N123W to 25N125W to 25N136W by Wed morning. Fresh N winds and 
7 to 8 ft seas are expected north of this front. Looking further
ahead, another cold front is expected to approach the northern 
waters Thu night, with building seas and freshening winds behind 
it on Fri, between Baja California and 130W.

$$
Hagen