000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061526
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Dec 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N75W
to 07N102W. The ITCZ extends from 07N102W to 09N110W to 07N125W 
to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N to 11N between 110W and 124W. Scattered moderate
is from 05N to 08N between 79W and 83W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A fairly relaxed pressure gradient is allowing winds to be 
light to moderate across most the offshore waters this morning. 
Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft west of Baja California and 2 to 4 
ft over the Gulf of California. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail 
elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh SW winds will develop in the northern 
Gulf of California tonight, increasing to fresh to strong early Tue,
but quickly diminishing Tue night. Another brief round of fresh 
to strong SW winds will return Thu night, diminishing by Fri. 
Fresh to strong N winds are expected to develop over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec early Tue, diminishing Tue evening. Fresh NW to N 
winds are possible near Cabo Corrientes Tue through Wed. Light to
gentle winds should prevail elsewhere through mid-week. A cold 
front could approach northern Baja California late this week 
resulting in freshening winds throughout the Gulf of California 
to Cabo Corrientes, and building seas west of Baja California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Deep convection has been decreasing in intensity, but there are
still patches of scattered moderate convection along the monsoon
trough off the coasts of Panama and northern Colombia. The 
highest winds are 20-25 kt across the Gulf of Papagayo due to a 
tighter pressure gradient and nearby terrain enhancements there,
with seas near 6 ft. Gentle winds are occurring elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Moderate S-SW winds are south of the 
monsoon trough, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range, locally to
7 ft west of Colombia and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail through Wed morning, then moderate to fresh 
through Thu. Fresh to strong winds may return late in the week. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue S of the monsoon 
trough this week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the subtropics. The pressure 
gradient between the high and lower pressure near the ITCZ is 
producing fresh strong NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to 
around 25N and west of about 120W. Moderate to fresh winds are 
occurring elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of about 110W. 
South of the ITCZ, moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 8 to 
10 ft range over the area of strong winds north of the ITCZ, and 
5 to 8 ft elsewhere, except 7 to 10 ft north of 28N between 120W
and 125W in northerly swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 11
ft will continue north of the ITCZ to about 25N and west of 120W
through early Tue due to the strong pressure gradient in that 
area. The fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft to the west of Baja
California Norte will persist into early Tue. A weak cold front 
will move south of 30N Tue, reaching from 30N126W to 24N135W to 
26N140W by Wed morning. Fresh N winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are 
expected north of this front. Looking further ahead, another 
cold front may approach the northern waters late this week, with 
building seas and freshening winds behind it.

$$
Cangialosi