677 AXPZ20 KNHC 060221 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Dec 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N76W to 08N90W to 07N94W. The ITCZ continues from 07N94W to 07N115W to 09N136W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 118W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 77W and 82W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are likely near 5 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are west of Baja California, highest offshore of Baja California Norte, and moderate NW winds over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft west of Baja California and 2 to 4 ft over the Gulf of California. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish tonight. Fresh winds west of Baja California and moderate winds in the Gulf of California will diminish late tonight. The subtropical high will strengthen over the Pacific early this week. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure over Mexico and the western U.S. is likely to cause fresh to strong winds over the northern Gulf of California Mon night through Tue night. Fresh to locally strong N winds will likely return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue. Fresh NW to N winds are possible near Cabo Corrientes Tue through Wed. Light to gentle winds should prevail elsewhere through mid- week. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach northern Baja California late this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Scattered moderate convection is currently seen on satellite imagery along the monsoon trough, off the coasts of Panama and northern Colombia. Fresh NE winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo early this evening, with seas near 6 ft. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range, locally to 7 ft west of Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will prevail through Tue night, then remain moderate to fresh through Thu. Fresh to strong winds may return late in the week. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue S of the monsoon trough this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ, anchored by high pressure north of the area. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing strong NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 23N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. South of the ITCZ, moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range over the area of strong winds north of the ITCZ, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue north of the ITCZ to 24N and west of 125W through Mon night due to the strong pressure gradient in that area. Fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are expected well to the west of Baja California Norte through Mon night. A weak cold front will move south of 30N Tue, reaching from 30N126W to 24N135W to 26N140W by Wed morning. Fresh N winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are expected north of this front, before the front weakens by early Thu. Looking ahead, another cold front may approach the northern waters late this week. $$ Lewitsky