000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052117 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Dec 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 09N85W to 06N96W. The ITCZ continues from 06N96W to 09N110W, then resumes from 08N113W to 09N117W to 06N123W to 08N134W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 82W and from 05N to 08N between 120W and 123W. A surface trough is analyzed along the ITCZ from 10N110W to 06N112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 108W and 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A partial ASCAT pass shows fresh N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are likely near 6 ft. Recent ASCAT wind data also show fresh N winds west of Baja California and moderate NW winds over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft west of Baja California and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Recent altimeter data shows seas of 3-6 ft elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this evening. Winds will diminish on both sides of Baja California late tonight. The subtropical high will strengthen over the Pacific early this week. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure over Mexico and the western U.S. is likely to cause fresh to strong winds over the northern Gulf of California Mon night through Tue night. Fresh NW to N winds are possible near Cabo Corrientes Tue through Wed. Fresh to locally strong N winds will likely return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue. Light to gentle winds should prevail elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters through mid-week. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach northern Baja California late this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Scattered moderate convection is currently seen on satellite imagery along the monsoon trough, off the coasts of Panama and northern Colombia. Recent ASCAT wind data show fresh NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas near 6 ft are likely occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. ASCAT shows moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will prevail through Tue night, then remain moderate to fresh through Thu. Fresh to strong winds may return late in the week. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue S of the monsoon trough this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N, anchored by 1033 mb high pressure centered near 38N130W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing strong NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to 22N, west of 130W, as shown in the latest ASCAT satellite wind data. Fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 24N, west of 120W. Mainly fresh N winds are occurring from 20N-30N between Baja California and 125W. South of the ITCZ, moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the area of strong winds north of the ITCZ, and 6-8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8-11 ft will continue north of the ITCZ to 24N, and west of 125W, through Mon night due to the strong pressure gradient in that area. Fresh N winds and seas of 7-9 ft are expected well to the west of Baja California Norte through Mon night. A weak cold front will move south of 30N Tue, reaching from 30N126W to 24N135W to 26N140W by Wed morning. Fresh N winds are expected north of this front, before the front weakens by early Thu. Looking ahead, another cold front may approach the northern waters late this week. $$ Hagen