000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050927 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Dec 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N83W to 06N97W. The ITCZ continues from 06N97W to 07N106W, then resumes from 06N108W to 09N128W and from 08N131W to 10N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 107W and 111W. Two surface trough are analyzed along the ITCZ, one from 08N106W to 05N109W and the second from 10N128W to 06N130W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough along 106W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Strong northerly winds and seas up to 8 ft continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through the morning hours. Moderate NW to N winds prevail over the southern Gulf of California as well as west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft west of Baja California, 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong N winds will continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the morning hours and gradually diminish in the afternoon. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds at the entrance of the Gulf of California, and in the southern Gulf of California will prevail through tonight. NW winds to the west of Baja California will strengthen to fresh and prevail through Sun night before diminishing. Looking ahead, the subtropical high will strengthen early next week. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure over Mexico and the western U.S. is likely to briefly cause winds to strengthen slightly, offshore Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California, Mon night and Tue. Light to gentle winds should prevail elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 7 ft are likely occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will prevail through Tue night and remain moderate to fresh the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N, anchored by 1030 mb high pressure centered near 39N128W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing fresh trades north of the ITCZ to 16N between 120W-135W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 105W. Light to gentle winds prevail north of 26N and east of 135W. South of the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over the area of fresh winds north of the ITCZ, and 6-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, expect strengthening trade winds and building seas north of the ITCZ to 23N, and west of 125W, Sun through Mon night as the pressure gradient increases in that area. A separate area of fresh N winds and building seas is expected well to the west of Baja California Norte Sun night through Mon night. $$ Torres