000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042053
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Dec 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near
06N77.5W to 08N82W to 06N91W. The ITCZ continues from 06N91W to 
07N120W to 09N132W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
05N to 09N between 77W and 85W, and from 05N to 09N between 99W
and 115W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 08N to 11N 
between 122W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong to near gale force N winds and seas up to 8 ft continue 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Moderate NW to N winds 
prevail over the southern Gulf of California as well as west of 
Baja California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas 
are 4-6 ft west of Baja California, 1-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong N winds will continue over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through tonight and gradually diminish Sun. Moderate
to locally fresh NW winds at the entrance of the Gulf of 
California, and in the southern Gulf of California will prevail 
through tonight. NW winds to the west of Baja California will 
strengthen to fresh tonight and prevail through Sun night before 
diminishing. Looking ahead, the subtropical high will strengthen
slightly near 33N135W early next week. The pressure gradient
between the high and lower pressure over Mexico and the western
U.S. is likely to briefly cause winds to strengthen slightly, 
offshore Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of 
California, Mon night and Tue. Light to gentle winds should
prevail elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters early next
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 7 ft are likely occurring 
over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle winds are elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail through Tue night. Gentle to moderate S to 
SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough through early next 
week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N, anchored by
1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N127W. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure near the
ITCZ is producing fresh trades north of the ITCZ to 16N between
120W-135W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere 
north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 105W. Light to gentle 
winds prevail north of 26N and east of 135W. South of the ITCZ, 
moderate to locally fresh winds prevail. Seas are in the 7-8 ft 
range over the area of fresh winds north of the ITCZ, and 6-7 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, expect strengthening trade winds and building
seas north of the ITCZ to 23N, and west of 125W, Sun through Mon
night as the pressure gradient increases in that area. A 
separate area of fresh N winds and building seas is expected 
well to the west of Baja California Norte Sun night through Mon 
night.

$$
Hagen