000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041542
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Dec 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Panama-Colombia border near
07N78W to 09N84W to 07N92W. The ITCZ continues from 07N92W to
07N113W to 09N121W to 09N127W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted along the boundary from 05N to 09N
between 77W and 83W, and from 05N to 09N between 109W and 112W.
Isolated moderate to strong convection is seen from 06N to 08N
between 97W and 106W and from 08N to 11N between 121W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong to near gale force N winds and seas up to 8 ft continue 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Moderate NW to N winds 
prevail over the southern Gulf of California as well as west of 
Baja California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas 
are in the 4-6 ft range, except 1-3 ft over the northern Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, strong N winds will continue over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through tonight and gradually diminish Sun. Moderate
to locally fresh NW winds at the entrance of the Gulf of 
California, and in the southern Gulf of California will prevail 
through early Sun. NW winds to the west of Baja California will
strengthen to fresh tonight and prevail through Sun night before
diminishing. Looking ahead, gentle winds should prevail across 
most of the Mexico offshore waters early next week, with moderate
N winds possible well offshore Baja California Norte.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds, and seas to 8 ft, are likely occurring 
over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle winds are elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except 3 to
5 ft offshore Panama and South America. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail through Tue night. Gentle to moderate S to 
SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough through early next 
week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N, anchored by
1024 mb high pressure centered near 36N127W. A surface trough 
extends from 22N132W to 13N138W. The pressure gradient between 
the area of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting a
small area of fresh to locally strong winds in the vicinity of
16N133W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere north
of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 105W. Light to gentle winds 
prevail north of 20N and east of 135W. South of the ITCZ, 
moderate winds prevail, except moderate to fresh west of 135W. 
Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over the area of fresh to strong 
winds near the trough and just north of the ITCZ, and 6-7 ft 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, expect strengthening trade winds and building
seas north of the ITCZ to 23N, and west of 125W, late Sun through
late Mon as the pressure gradient increases in that area. A
separate area of fresh to strong N winds and building seas is
expected well to the west of Baja California Norte Sun night
through Mon night.

$$
Hagen