000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022041
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Dec 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico and lower 
pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will
support gale- force gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
tonight. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force Fri 
morning. Seas will peak near 11 ft tonight. Please see the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 07N92W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N92W to 06N100W to 09.5N125W. It then resumes 
from 09.5N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 09N between 104W and 115W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 120W
and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
upcoming gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds, and seas to 10 ft, 
prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh 
NW winds are along the southern Gulf of California and the 
entrance of the gulf. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient 
prevails, supporting mainly light to gentle winds. Seas are in 
the 4-5 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft 
over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the strong to near gale-force N to NE winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will increase to gale-force 
through Fri morning. Strong winds will then remain in the region 
before diminishing to moderate speeds Sun morning. Moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds at the entrance of the Gulf of California,
and the southern Gulf of California will prevail through Sun. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds will develop over the waters west
of the Baja California peninsula tonight and continue through 
Sun night. Winds will increase over the Gulf of California Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds, and seas to 8 ft, prevail over the
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail through Tue night. Gentle to moderate S to 
SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough through early next 
week. Moderate winds will impact the Gulf of Panama today. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 115W. Light
to gentle winds are over the waters north of 20N, except W of 
135W where moderate NE winds are observed. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 5-7 ft 
range. 

$$
AL