158 
AXPZ20 KNHC 021000
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Dec 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building across 
the Gulf of Mexico this morning will tighten the pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough. This will usher in the next gale 
force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning,
which is forecast to continue through Fri morning. Seas will 
build to near 11 ft today. Please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 09N84W to 05N98W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N98W to 09N120W. It then resumes from 
09N126W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of
05N between 78W and 84W, from 07N to 12N between 114W and 125W,
and from 07N to 11N W of 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an 
upcoming gale-force gap wind event this morning in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds, and seas to 9 ft, 
prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh
NW winds are along the southern Gulf of California and the
entrance of the gulf. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient 
prevails, supporting mainly light to gentle winds. Seas are in 
the 3-5 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over
the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the strong to near gale-force N to NE winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will briefly increase to gale- 
force this morning and continue through Fri morning. Strong 
winds will then remain in the region before diminishing to 
moderate speeds Sun morning. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
in the southern Gulf of California and the entrance of the gulf
will prevail through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds will 
develop over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula 
tonight and continue through Sun night. A second gap wind event 
for the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Mon night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds, and seas to 8 ft, prevail over the
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough while gentle to moderate winds are south of it
with seas in the 3-5 ft range. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail through Mon night. Gentle to moderate S to 
SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough through early next
week. Moderate winds will impact the Gulf of Panama today.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends across the waters north of 20N. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 115W. 
Light to gentle winds are over the waters north of 20N, except W
of 130W where moderate to locally fresh NE winds are observed. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas 
are in the 6-7 ft range in the area of fresh winds, and 5 ft 
elsewhere. 

$$
Ramos