144 
AXPZ20 KNHC 011447
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Dec 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build across
the Gulf of Mexico. The tightening pressure gradient between 
this building high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough will usher in the next gale force 
gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase
to gale force Thursday evening, and diminish below gale force 
Fri morning. Seas will build to near 11 ft over this time. Please
see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 08.5N85W to 07N103W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N103W to 10N115W to 08N124W to 09N127W.
It then resumes from 09N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 115W and 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an 
upcoming gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds, and seas to 9 ft, 
prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient prevails, supporting mainly light to gentle winds. Seas
are in the 4-5 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3
ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the strong to near gale-force N to NE winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will briefly increase to gale- 
force Thu night. Strong winds will then remain in the region 
before diminishing to moderate speeds Sun morning. Moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds are forecast to develop at the entrance of
the Gulf of California, and the southern Gulf of California Wed 
night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will develop over the 
waters west of the Baja California peninsula Thu night and 
continue through Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds, and seas to 8 ft, prevail over the
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail through Sun. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds
are expected S of the monsoon trough through the weekend. 
Moderate to locally winds will impact the Gulf of Panama tonight 
through Thu. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends across the waters north of 20N. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh winds north of the ITCZ to near 15N and west of 137W.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough to near 20N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds are
over the waters north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in the are of
fresh winds, and 6-7 ft elsewhere. 

$$
AL