000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010344 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Dec 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with the monsoon trough will continue to support fresh to near gale-force N to NE winds in the region through Thu. By Thu afternoon, new and slightly stronger high pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico, which will support a brief development of gale force winds forecast to continue through Fri morning. Strong winds will then prevail through early Sun morning. Peak seas are estimated to build to 9 ft with the strongest winds. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 06N90W to 07N109W. The ITCZ begins near 09N115W to 09N124W, then resumes W of a surface trough near 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 04N E of 86W, from 06N to 14N between 103W and 119W, and from 07N to 10N between 124W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to near gale-force N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with seas to 9 ft. These conditions are forecast to prevail through Thu afternoon when a slight change in the pressure gradient will support a brief gale-force gap wind event in Tehuantepec. Minimal gale winds to 35 kt are expected to continue through Fri morning. Strong winds will remain in the region and diminish to moderate speeds Sun morning. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas to 5 ft in NW swell, except for 1-3 ft along the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are forecast to develop at the entrance of the Gulf, and the southern Gulf of California Wed night, and along the Baja offshores by Thu night through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will continue into Sun with seas to 8 ft. Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough or roughly S of 06N through the weekend with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are forecast for the Gulf of Panama Wed night through Thu. Otherwise, heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing across the Panama offshore waters are forecast to prevail and extend to Costa Rica offshore waters on Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1028 mb center of high pressure N of the area extends a ridge southward to near 16N. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to near 24N and west of about 120W. Seas are 5-8 ft across this region. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are N of 24N while moderate to locally fresh SE winds are S of the ITCZ. NW swell of 5 to 7 ft over the far NW forecast waters will prevail through tonight. NW swell to 8 ft is across the far NW forecast waters and will maintain seas near 8 ft across these NW waters through tonight. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft will continue mainly from 13N to 23N and W of 130W through the middle of the week as the ridge remains nearly stationary. $$ Ramos