000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301531
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Nov 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Colombia-Panama border near
09N76W to 07N90W to low pres 1011 mb near 08N109W to 08N114W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N114W to 09N122W then resumes W of a
surface trough near 09N124W to 08N132W to 09N140W. Numerous 
moderate convection is N of 04N E of 84W, and from 06N to 12N 
between 105W and 117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient between a surface high pressure over the 
Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec associated with the monsoon trough continue to 
support N to NE near gale-force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region this morning. Peak seas are estimated at 13 
ft. However, winds have fallen just below gale force and are
expected to gradually diminish through the day, so the gale
warning has has expired. Strong gap winds will remain through 
the weekend. 

Moderate NW winds prevail across the southern Gulf of California
to the offshore waters of Jalisco with seas 3 to 5 ft. Similar 
wind conditions are along the Baja California offshore waters. 
Conditions will prevail into tonight for both regions. Moderate 
to locally fresh NW winds will resume at the entrance of the 
Gulf, and the southern half of the Gulf of California Wed night 
and along the Baja offshores on Thu, continuing through Sat 
night. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds will dominate 
the remainder offshore waters through the forecast period.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will continue 
into Sun with seas building up to 8 ft today and Wed. Moderate 
to locally S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough or 
roughly S of 06N through the weekend with seas to 5 ft in SW 
swell. Moderate N to NE winds are forecast for the Gulf of Panama
through today. Otherwise, heavy showers and thunderstorms 
ongoing across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters are 
forecast to prevail through at least Wed. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb center of high pressure N of the area extends a ridge 
southward to near 16N. The pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to 
near 24N and west of about 120W. Seas are 5-8 ft across this 
region. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are N of 24N while 
mainly moderate SE winds are S of the ITCZ, except for fresh 
winds and seas to 8 ft W of 133W.

NW swell to 8 ft is across the far NW forecast waters and will 
maintain seas near 8 ft across these NW waters through tonight. 
Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft will continue mainly 
from 13N to 23N and W of 130W through the middle of the week as 
the ridge remains nearly stationary. 

$$
KONARIK