000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Nov 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a surface ridge over eastern Mexico and lower pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with the monsoon trough is supporting N to NE gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this afternoon. Peak seas are estimated at 11 ft. Winds are forecast to peak near 40 kt this evening while seas build up to 14 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale- force Tue morning then remain strong gap winds through the remainder of the week. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 09.5N75W to 10N82W to 06.5N93W to low pres 1012 mb near 08.5N105W. The ITCZ continues from 08N109W to 09.5N121W to 08.5N129W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N E of 87W, from 07N to 10N between 103W and 118W, and within 60 nm N of ITCZ W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale-force N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and are forecast to continue through Tue morning. Strong gap winds will then continue across this region Tue through Fri, with winds becoming strongest at night. Moderate northerly winds to 15 kt prevail across the Gulf of California to the offshore waters of Jalisco with seas 3 to 4 ft, except for 5 ft in NW swell at the entrance of the Gulf. These winds will diminish Tue. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will resume at the entrance of the Gulf, the southern half of the Gulf of California and the Baja California Sur offshore waters Thu and prevail through Fri night. Moderate northerly winds prevail across the offshore Pacific waters of Baja California where seas are 3 to 5 ft in NW swell. Little change is expected through Tue. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds will dominate the remainder offshore waters through the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will continue through Fri night with seas building up to 8 ft Tue and Wed. Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough or roughly S of 06N through Fri night with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Otherwise, moderate N to NE winds are forecast for the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Active showers and tstorms occurring across the SW Caribbean and along the monsoon trough today will shift westward and to the Pacific waters E of 85W through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb center of high pressure near 37N130W extends a ridge southward to near 22N113W. Scattered moderate convection extends within 60 nm either side of a line from 21N114W TO 16N121W. This marks the moisture boundary between the SE periphery of the ridge and moist subtropical air to the south. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to near 23N and west of about 124W. Seas are 5-8 ft across this region. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. NW swell to 8 ft has begun to move into the far NW forecast waters this afternoon and will maintain seas near 8 ft across these NW waters through Tue night. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft will continue mainly from 16N to 25N and W of 130W through the middle of the week as the ridge remains nearly stationary. $$ Stripling