000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291002
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Nov 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
a surface ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and lower 
pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with the 
monsoon trough is supporting N to NE gale-force winds across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec region with seas to 11 ft. Winds are 
forecast to peak to 40 kt this afternoon and seas build up to 15
ft in the evening. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale- 
force Tue morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N75W to 
07N90W to 08N110W. The ITCZ continues from 08N110W to 10N123W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 02N E of 82W, from
06N to 14N between 99W and 117W, and from 08N to 17N W of 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gale-force N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region and are forecast to continue through Tue morning. Strong 
to near gale force winds will continue in this region Tue and 
diminish to fresh to strong Tue night. Strong to near gale-force 
winds will resume Wed night and prevail through Fri. 

Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are along the Gulf of 
California to the offshore waters of Jalisco with seas to 3 ft,
except for 5 ft in NW swell at the entrance of the Gulf. These 
winds will diminish Tue. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will 
resume at the entrance of the Gulf, the southern half of the Gulf
of California and the Baja California Sur offshore waters Thu 
and prevail through Fr night.

Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds will dominate the
remainder offshore waters through the forecast period.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will continue 
through Fri night with seas building up to 8 ft Tue and Wed. 
Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough or
roughly S of 06N through Fri night with seas to 5 ft in SW 
swell. Otherwise, moderate N to NE winds are forecast for the 
Gulf of Panama through Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb center of high pressure extends a ridge southward to
nearly 17N. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to
near 25N and west of about 120W. Seas are 5-7 ft across this 
region. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere with seas in the
5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, NW swell will start affecting the NW forecast
waters this afternoon with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds
and seas to 8 ft will continue mainly from 16N to 25N and W of 
130W through the middle of the week as the ridge remains nearly
stationary.  

$$
Ramos