000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272015
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is surging
southward over eastern Mexico toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold front. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure south of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec within and near the monsoon trough will
induce north to northeast gale-force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec once again, starting on Sun night. These conditions 
winds will continue through Mon night. Seas will peak to near 10
ft through with strongest winds. Please see the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 09N128W. The ITCZ 
continues from 09N128W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between
93W-100W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
next gale-force northerly gap wind event expected in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

Elsewhere, light and variable winds prevail over the Gulf of
California. An area of fresh northwest to north winds are over 
the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Mazatlan. Seas are 4-5 ft
offshore of the Baja California Peninsula mainly due to a 
northwest swell, and 4-6 ft elsewhere west of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec area.

For the forecast, gale-force winds possible Sun night through 
Mon night. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds will 
develop near Cabo Corrientes tonight through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds continue south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3-5 ft 
range due to a south to southwest swell across the offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, fresh northeast winds will pulse to strong in 
the Papagayo region beginning tonight. Gentle to moderate winds 
will remain elsewhere through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east trades north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 
116W. Seas are 6-8 ft across this area. Divergence aloft present
to the east of an upper-level low that is observed near 20N119W 
is helping to sustain an area of scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms from 16N-22N between 109W-119W. Gentle to moderate 
northeast to east trades are elsewhere over the discussion waters
as noted in latest ASCAT data passes. Seas of mainly 4-6 ft are 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will weaken through 
late Sun as a front approaches the far northwest corner of
the area. This will allow for the aforementioned fresh winds to 
diminish in coverage. The 6-8 ft seas will subside slightly to 
5-7 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate east trades will continue 
elsewhere through early next week, except for pockets of fresh 
trades west of about 129W. After late Sun, the seas of 5-7 ft
will continue through early next week.
 
$$
ERA