000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271554
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Nov 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is surging
southward over eastern Mexico toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold front. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure south of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec within and near the monsoon trough is 
inducing minimal north to northeast gale-force winds across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. These conditions winds will diminish later 
this morning. Seas will peak to near 10 ft through the morning.  
The next gale-force gap wind event is expected to begin on Sun 
night through Mon night. Please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 09N129W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N129W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough 
between 93W-100W, and also within 60 nm of the trough between
109W-111W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details 
on a gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest winds are in the 
northern Gulf of California with seas to 4 ft. Light and 
variable winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. An area of 
fresh to strong northwest to north winds are over the waters 
between Cabo Corrientes and Mazatlan. Seas are 4-6 ft offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula mainly due to a northwest swell, 
and 3-5 ft elsewhere west-northwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
area.

Recent altimeter data indicates seas up to 9 ft downstream of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15N96W.

For the forecast, gale-force north to northeast winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue for several more hours, then
diminish to strong speeds and change little through Sun. Gale- 
force winds are again possible Sun night through Mon night. 
Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds will develop near Cabo
Corrientes tonight through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds continue south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3-5 ft 
range due to a south to southwest swell across the offshore 
waters due to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh northeast winds will pulse to strong in 
the Papagayo region beginning tonight. Gentle to moderate winds 
will remain elsewhere through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east trades north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 
118W. Seas are 6-8 ft across this area. The fresh winds are 
concentrated from 14N to 20N. Seas of 6-8 ft with these trades 
are also due to northwest swell energy. Divergence aloft present 
to the east of an upper-level low that is observed near 20N119W 
is helping to sustain an area of scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms from 16N-22N between 109W-119W. Gentle to moderate
northeast to east trades are elsewhere over the discussion 
waters as noted in overnight ASCAT data passes. Seas of mainly 
4-6 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will weaken through 
late Sun as a front approaches the far northwest corner of
the area. This will allow for the aforementioned fresh winds to 
diminish in coverage. The 6-8 ft seas will subside slightly to 
5-7 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate east trades will continue 
elsewhere through early next week, except for pockets of fresh 
trades west of about 129W. After late Sun, the seas of 5-7 ft are
expected to continue into early next week.
 
$$
ERA